1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,399 just how serious is the emerging 2 00:00:02,399 --> 00:00:03,959 conflict with China 3 00:00:03,959 --> 00:00:07,700 it has already turned into Cold War II 4 00:00:07,700 --> 00:00:10,500 historian Neil Ferguson on uncommon 5 00:00:10,500 --> 00:00:11,940 knowledge now 6 00:00:11,940 --> 00:00:20,959 [Music] 7 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:23,939 welcome to uncommon knowledge I'm Peter 8 00:00:23,939 --> 00:00:25,680 Robinson a fellow at the Hoover 9 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:27,599 institution Neil Ferguson received his 10 00:00:27,599 --> 00:00:29,519 undergraduate and graduate degrees from 11 00:00:29,519 --> 00:00:32,159 Oxford before coming here to Stanford he 12 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:34,980 held post at Oxford Cambridge New York 13 00:00:34,980 --> 00:00:37,440 University Harvard and the London School 14 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:40,140 of Economics Dr Ferguson is the author 15 00:00:40,140 --> 00:00:42,300 of more than a dozen Major Works of 16 00:00:42,300 --> 00:00:44,280 History including the pity of War 17 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:47,160 explaining World War One the ascent of 18 00:00:47,160 --> 00:00:49,680 money Empire how Britain made the modern 19 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:52,620 world and we come now to today's topic 20 00:00:52,620 --> 00:00:55,620 Kissinger the idealist the first volume 21 00:00:55,620 --> 00:00:58,140 of his two-volume biography of Henry 22 00:00:58,140 --> 00:00:59,940 Kissinger one of the most important 23 00:00:59,940 --> 00:01:03,719 figures of the first Long Cold War Dr 24 00:01:03,719 --> 00:01:05,519 Ferguson is now completing his second 25 00:01:05,519 --> 00:01:08,340 volume of the two-volume biography of 26 00:01:08,340 --> 00:01:10,320 Henry Kissinger completing it yes Neil 27 00:01:10,320 --> 00:01:12,680 yes that's the plan got it all right 28 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:15,900 Neil Ferguson in National Review 29 00:01:15,900 --> 00:01:18,060 there was a first World War 30 00:01:18,060 --> 00:01:19,799 then there was a second they were not 31 00:01:19,799 --> 00:01:21,479 identical but they were sufficiently 32 00:01:21,479 --> 00:01:24,180 similar for no one to argue about the 33 00:01:24,180 --> 00:01:26,700 nomenclature similarly there was Cold 34 00:01:26,700 --> 00:01:27,900 War One 35 00:01:27,900 --> 00:01:31,320 and now we are in Cold War II 36 00:01:31,320 --> 00:01:33,180 all right here's what I take the term 37 00:01:33,180 --> 00:01:35,520 Cold War to mean 38 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:38,759 conflict with China will last 39 00:01:38,759 --> 00:01:41,460 two or three generations 40 00:01:41,460 --> 00:01:43,560 generational conflict 41 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:45,060 we'll find ourselves living under 42 00:01:45,060 --> 00:01:47,520 nuclear threat again 43 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:49,020 and the Very existence of our 44 00:01:49,020 --> 00:01:51,180 civilization is at stake 45 00:01:51,180 --> 00:01:53,700 am I being melodramatic or or is that a 46 00:01:53,700 --> 00:01:56,340 fair summary of what cold war is oh it's 47 00:01:56,340 --> 00:01:58,680 much worse than that because you're 48 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:00,780 assuming that it's going to be very 49 00:02:00,780 --> 00:02:02,040 protracted 50 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:05,040 Cold War one was really a full decade 51 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:08,399 Affair it ended up actually rather 52 00:02:08,399 --> 00:02:12,300 sooner than most experts anticipated but 53 00:02:12,300 --> 00:02:14,280 there's no guarantee that Cold War II 54 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:18,540 will last as long because China is a far 55 00:02:18,540 --> 00:02:20,580 more formidable adversary than the 56 00:02:20,580 --> 00:02:22,760 Soviet Union was economically 57 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:26,520 it has all but caught up by one measure 58 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:28,920 a gross domestic product based on 59 00:02:28,920 --> 00:02:31,140 purchasing power parity China overtook 60 00:02:31,140 --> 00:02:33,540 the United States in 2014 the Soviets 61 00:02:33,540 --> 00:02:35,580 never got close by that measure their 62 00:02:35,580 --> 00:02:38,640 Peak was 44 the size of the United 63 00:02:38,640 --> 00:02:40,500 States so purely from an economic 64 00:02:40,500 --> 00:02:43,860 Vantage Point Cold War II is is worse 65 00:02:43,860 --> 00:02:45,900 from a technological vantage point it's 66 00:02:45,900 --> 00:02:48,300 also worse because we have the nuclear 67 00:02:48,300 --> 00:02:50,879 weapons of Cold War one of course we 68 00:02:50,879 --> 00:02:52,920 have Superior weapons to the weapons 69 00:02:52,920 --> 00:02:54,480 they had at the beginning of Cold War 70 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:56,040 one but we also have a lot of things 71 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:58,800 that they didn't have in Cold War one 72 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:01,260 from artificial intelligence to maybe 73 00:03:01,260 --> 00:03:03,660 Quantum compute shooting and So Cold War 74 00:03:03,660 --> 00:03:05,760 II is taking place with a great deal 75 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:07,860 more technology a great deal more 76 00:03:07,860 --> 00:03:10,860 Firepower than Cold War one and do you 77 00:03:10,860 --> 00:03:12,900 want me to keep going go ahead I'll give 78 00:03:12,900 --> 00:03:14,519 you one more reason for being worried 79 00:03:14,519 --> 00:03:16,140 I'll spend the rest of the show trying 80 00:03:16,140 --> 00:03:19,080 to find a note of cheer well let's stay 81 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:21,840 a reality in the face in Cold War one it 82 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:25,019 was really quite hard for the Soviets to 83 00:03:25,019 --> 00:03:26,940 find out things about the United States 84 00:03:26,940 --> 00:03:29,580 because the number of Soviet citizens in 85 00:03:29,580 --> 00:03:31,140 the United States was pretty small 86 00:03:31,140 --> 00:03:33,480 throughout and we knew who they were and 87 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:35,159 where they were and there was there was 88 00:03:35,159 --> 00:03:36,360 some penetration of American 89 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:39,780 institutions but by comparison with Cold 90 00:03:39,780 --> 00:03:42,540 War II it was nothing in Cold War II you 91 00:03:42,540 --> 00:03:45,000 have massive social and economic 92 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:46,459 interpenetration 93 00:03:46,459 --> 00:03:49,799 there are all kinds of ways in which the 94 00:03:49,799 --> 00:03:52,379 Chinese can find out things about are 95 00:03:52,379 --> 00:03:54,900 relatively open access society and 96 00:03:54,900 --> 00:03:56,819 economy and not just by being here 97 00:03:56,819 --> 00:03:58,440 though they certainly are here in much 98 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:00,599 larger numbers than the Soviets were but 99 00:04:00,599 --> 00:04:03,060 also electronically so I do think before 100 00:04:03,060 --> 00:04:06,659 we just assume oh Cold War II will be a 101 00:04:06,659 --> 00:04:07,980 bit like World War One in terms of 102 00:04:07,980 --> 00:04:09,599 duration I don't think that's guaranteed 103 00:04:09,599 --> 00:04:11,159 nor is it guaranteed that we win because 104 00:04:11,159 --> 00:04:12,720 of course we won Cold War one we 105 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:14,040 shouldn't assume that we'll win Cold War 106 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,380 II all right 107 00:04:16,380 --> 00:04:18,180 um we'll come back to this what who's 108 00:04:18,180 --> 00:04:20,040 whose phrase is it the correlation of 109 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:24,600 forces that was a Stalin phrase it was 110 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:26,240 certainly a Marxism 111 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:28,740 it's actually a sensible analytical 112 00:04:28,740 --> 00:04:31,860 starting point their economy our economy 113 00:04:31,860 --> 00:04:32,820 you've just taken us through that we'll 114 00:04:32,820 --> 00:04:34,979 return to that it's it's a Marxist 115 00:04:34,979 --> 00:04:37,199 learning this concept that you can think 116 00:04:37,199 --> 00:04:40,199 of power in those terms I mean if Henry 117 00:04:40,199 --> 00:04:43,020 Kissinger were sitting here he would say 118 00:04:43,020 --> 00:04:46,080 that there was always a moral Dimension 119 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:48,180 right uh in addition to the material 120 00:04:48,180 --> 00:04:49,680 Dimension that's one of the reasons I 121 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:51,840 call volume one of that biography the 122 00:04:51,840 --> 00:04:54,060 idealist but it's good that we've 123 00:04:54,060 --> 00:04:56,639 brought him up because 124 00:04:56,639 --> 00:04:58,620 you don't need to take it from me that 125 00:04:58,620 --> 00:05:01,620 we're in Cold War II just ask Henry 126 00:05:01,620 --> 00:05:04,560 Kissinger who at the age of 99 knows a 127 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:06,900 thing or two about cold Wars I'll tell 128 00:05:06,900 --> 00:05:09,900 you a little anecdote uh Pisa when I 129 00:05:09,900 --> 00:05:11,699 first started thinking about this in 130 00:05:11,699 --> 00:05:15,600 2018 I I had to summon up the courage to 131 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:18,600 ask Kissinger are we in a cold war and I 132 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:21,000 asked him actually in China at a 133 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:24,300 conference in late 2019 and he gave a 134 00:05:24,300 --> 00:05:26,580 great reply he said we are in the 135 00:05:26,580 --> 00:05:30,479 foothills of a cold war a year later he 136 00:05:30,479 --> 00:05:33,240 upgraded that in 2020 to the mountain 137 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:36,900 passes of a cold war when I asked him 138 00:05:36,900 --> 00:05:40,440 about it last year he said almost taking 139 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:43,080 it for granted that we're in Cold War II 140 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:45,960 that the new Cold War would be worse 141 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:48,240 would be to be precise more dangerous 142 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:50,880 than the first Cold War so I'm not just 143 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:53,280 winging this I'm I'm basing this partly 144 00:05:53,280 --> 00:05:55,860 on his insights 145 00:05:55,860 --> 00:05:56,639 um 146 00:05:56,639 --> 00:05:59,580 I take you as an authority in your in 147 00:05:59,580 --> 00:06:01,620 your own right Neil but now now now now 148 00:06:01,620 --> 00:06:05,400 now I'm I'm truly staggered by this 149 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:07,080 Taiwan 150 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:09,120 just off the coast of China an island 151 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:11,160 about the size of Maryland half the size 152 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:14,220 of Scotland population 23 million 153 00:06:14,220 --> 00:06:17,220 a genuine functioning democracy with a 154 00:06:17,220 --> 00:06:20,460 thriving free market economy the 155 00:06:20,460 --> 00:06:22,319 position of the Chinese Communist party 156 00:06:22,319 --> 00:06:26,400 is that Taiwan is not independent but 157 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:29,759 properly speaking a part of China that 158 00:06:29,759 --> 00:06:32,220 therefore should be under the control of 159 00:06:32,220 --> 00:06:34,860 the Chinese Communist Party an event in 160 00:06:34,860 --> 00:06:37,080 a quotation here's the event last month 161 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:39,120 the president of Taiwan visited the 162 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:40,380 United States 163 00:06:40,380 --> 00:06:42,960 no one in the Bible Administration met 164 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:43,979 her 165 00:06:43,979 --> 00:06:46,520 but house Speaker Kevin McCarthy did 166 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:49,680 China responded with military exercises 167 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:51,900 around Taiwan that included and now I'm 168 00:06:51,900 --> 00:06:54,780 quoting from a Chinese release 169 00:06:54,780 --> 00:06:57,720 quote nuclear-capable bombers armed with 170 00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:00,479 live missiles and warships staging 171 00:07:00,479 --> 00:07:02,580 drills to form an island encompassing 172 00:07:02,580 --> 00:07:05,460 blockade situation close quote I'm not 173 00:07:05,460 --> 00:07:06,720 sure what an island encompassing 174 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:08,580 blockade situation is but it doesn't 175 00:07:08,580 --> 00:07:12,060 sound good here's the quotation you in 176 00:07:12,060 --> 00:07:13,740 your regular column for Bloomberg News 177 00:07:13,740 --> 00:07:17,580 this is a couple of years ago losing or 178 00:07:17,580 --> 00:07:19,620 not even fighting for Taiwan would be 179 00:07:19,620 --> 00:07:22,139 seen all over Asia as the end of 180 00:07:22,139 --> 00:07:23,880 American predominance in the region it 181 00:07:23,880 --> 00:07:25,380 would surely cause a run on the dollar 182 00:07:25,380 --> 00:07:28,500 and U.S treasuries it would be an 183 00:07:28,500 --> 00:07:30,840 American Suez Suez 184 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:34,440 the 1957 British failure to keep 185 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:36,840 the Egyptians from taking Suez and 186 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:38,039 that's the moment when everybody 187 00:07:38,039 --> 00:07:40,919 included the British themselves realized 188 00:07:40,919 --> 00:07:43,319 Britain is no longer a global power okay 189 00:07:43,319 --> 00:07:44,759 correct 190 00:07:44,759 --> 00:07:47,340 and Americans why should we have so much 191 00:07:47,340 --> 00:07:50,460 at stake why should we be risking an 192 00:07:50,460 --> 00:07:53,520 American Suez with an island 193 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:55,380 on the other side of the world 194 00:07:55,380 --> 00:07:58,979 well it's a great question because uh 195 00:07:58,979 --> 00:08:00,900 going back to something you said a 196 00:08:00,900 --> 00:08:04,259 moment ago we used to accept that Taiwan 197 00:08:04,259 --> 00:08:05,699 was part of China 198 00:08:05,699 --> 00:08:07,979 uh and indeed we still officially do 199 00:08:07,979 --> 00:08:10,620 have a one China policy so one of The 200 00:08:10,620 --> 00:08:13,500 Oddities about Taiwan is that it's not 201 00:08:13,500 --> 00:08:16,860 really controversial but China claims it 202 00:08:16,860 --> 00:08:19,680 and we do not recognize it as an 203 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:22,020 independent state in fact you'll get 204 00:08:22,020 --> 00:08:24,300 told off even for referring to it as a 205 00:08:24,300 --> 00:08:27,419 country uh in some circles so what's 206 00:08:27,419 --> 00:08:29,639 changed because for the better part of 207 00:08:29,639 --> 00:08:32,760 half a century really since uh Henry 208 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:35,458 Kissinger and Richard Nixon uh figured 209 00:08:35,458 --> 00:08:38,580 out the Shanghai communique with Mao 210 00:08:38,580 --> 00:08:42,419 Zedong Joe and Lai we have gone along 211 00:08:42,419 --> 00:08:45,060 with the fiction that Taiwan as part of 212 00:08:45,060 --> 00:08:47,760 China we've had something called 213 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:51,000 strategic ambiguity since the late 1970s 214 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:54,180 and that ambiguity was that people in 215 00:08:54,180 --> 00:08:57,060 Congress who weren't so sure about what 216 00:08:57,060 --> 00:08:58,740 Kissinger and Nixon had done said well 217 00:08:58,740 --> 00:09:00,899 we have to have some commitment to 218 00:09:00,899 --> 00:09:04,200 Taiwan and the commitment was an act of 219 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:07,260 Congress that said if China tried to 220 00:09:07,260 --> 00:09:09,720 change the status quo by force we 221 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:12,240 essentially reserved the right to take 222 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:14,279 military action but this is the 223 00:09:14,279 --> 00:09:18,060 ambiguity of our policy for 50 years we 224 00:09:18,060 --> 00:09:19,800 kind of accept the Chinese claim that 225 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:21,779 taiwan's border China but we also say 226 00:09:21,779 --> 00:09:23,940 that if they try to assert that claim by 227 00:09:23,940 --> 00:09:27,140 force we may do something about it 228 00:09:27,140 --> 00:09:30,300 what's changed in the last few years is 229 00:09:30,300 --> 00:09:33,000 that Cold War II has begun even if 230 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:35,779 Americans don't call it by that name 231 00:09:35,779 --> 00:09:39,480 increasingly since around 2018 the 232 00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:41,640 United States and this is true of both 233 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:44,880 Republicans and Democrats has taken a 234 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:48,060 tougher stance on China generally and on 235 00:09:48,060 --> 00:09:51,240 Taiwan specifically President Biden on 236 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:53,459 at least three maybe four occasions has 237 00:09:53,459 --> 00:09:56,399 seemed to repudiate strategic ambiguity 238 00:09:56,399 --> 00:09:59,640 a number of leading policy intellectuals 239 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:02,459 Richard Harris former Grand panjandrum 240 00:10:02,459 --> 00:10:03,839 of the council and Foreign Relations 241 00:10:03,839 --> 00:10:06,839 said in 2020 why do we we carry on with 242 00:10:06,839 --> 00:10:08,820 the Strategic ambiguity nonsense let's 243 00:10:08,820 --> 00:10:11,580 be unambiguous in our commitment to 244 00:10:11,580 --> 00:10:13,500 Taiwan Nancy Pelosi the former speaker 245 00:10:13,500 --> 00:10:15,420 of the house paid a visit to the island 246 00:10:15,420 --> 00:10:18,360 in which she acted to all intents and 247 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:20,640 purposes as if Taiwan was an 248 00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:22,380 independence day she was visiting so I 249 00:10:22,380 --> 00:10:24,420 think there's been a significant shift 250 00:10:24,420 --> 00:10:26,820 in our general attitude towards China 251 00:10:26,820 --> 00:10:29,459 and our specific attitude towards Taiwan 252 00:10:29,459 --> 00:10:32,399 and the Chinese in turn have been upping 253 00:10:32,399 --> 00:10:35,100 the ante uh and you gave one example 254 00:10:35,100 --> 00:10:38,339 there the recent blockade exercise at 255 00:10:38,339 --> 00:10:41,339 the time of speaker McCarthy's meeting 256 00:10:41,339 --> 00:10:43,320 with the Taiwanese president but they 257 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:45,600 did something very similar when Nancy 258 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:47,459 Pelosi was in Taiwan so we are moving 259 00:10:47,459 --> 00:10:50,160 quite fast in the direction of a 260 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:52,800 showdown over Taiwan after more more or 261 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:54,180 less half a century of strategic 262 00:10:54,180 --> 00:10:56,420 ambiguity so so let me ask this question 263 00:10:56,420 --> 00:10:58,500 let me give you a couple of scenarios 264 00:10:58,500 --> 00:11:01,560 and see what you do with them here's one 265 00:11:01,560 --> 00:11:02,600 um 266 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:05,579 here's the example of Hong Kong 267 00:11:05,579 --> 00:11:08,519 China just took Hong Kong 268 00:11:08,519 --> 00:11:10,800 and here's what we did about it 269 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:12,899 a couple of sharpish statements from 270 00:11:12,899 --> 00:11:15,540 President Biden and nothing else nothing 271 00:11:15,540 --> 00:11:18,300 else how did people in Hong Kong respond 272 00:11:18,300 --> 00:11:20,399 well students demonstrated the 273 00:11:20,399 --> 00:11:21,839 demonstrations are over they've been 274 00:11:21,839 --> 00:11:24,120 suppressed and interestingly enough to 275 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:25,620 me at least 276 00:11:25,620 --> 00:11:27,300 as best I can tell in the business 277 00:11:27,300 --> 00:11:30,839 Community exactly two Hong Kong people 278 00:11:30,839 --> 00:11:33,180 stood up against it Jimmy lies in jail 279 00:11:33,180 --> 00:11:36,000 and then Martin Lee if I have his his 280 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:38,160 first name correct there was a a 281 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:39,540 prominent lawyer and businessman who 282 00:11:39,540 --> 00:11:40,860 also stood up against him I'm not sure 283 00:11:40,860 --> 00:11:43,079 of his status but you have this large 284 00:11:43,079 --> 00:11:45,899 Hong Kong Community a very wealthy 285 00:11:45,899 --> 00:11:48,000 almost overwhelmingly men 286 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:50,220 and they 287 00:11:50,220 --> 00:11:53,040 permit the deal to go forward 288 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:55,980 now we come to Taiwan China is upping 289 00:11:55,980 --> 00:11:57,420 the ante 290 00:11:57,420 --> 00:11:59,760 surely they're talking to each other 291 00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:01,200 I think of another small country 292 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:03,899 surrounded by hostile Powers Israel 293 00:12:03,899 --> 00:12:06,300 Israel devotes more than five percent of 294 00:12:06,300 --> 00:12:08,700 its GDP to its defense 295 00:12:08,700 --> 00:12:11,880 Taiwan barely over two percent there's 296 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:14,040 some sense in which it feels as though 297 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:16,140 there's a lack of seriousness 298 00:12:16,140 --> 00:12:19,200 a willingness one way or another to do 299 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:22,320 the deal we we in the business Community 300 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:24,600 here can we can get along we can sort 301 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:26,100 this out what we're interested in after 302 00:12:26,100 --> 00:12:28,860 all is Commerce and Beijing understands 303 00:12:28,860 --> 00:12:31,620 Commerce these days so what happens one 304 00:12:31,620 --> 00:12:34,560 way or another by slow degrees and we do 305 00:12:34,560 --> 00:12:37,140 nothing about it is that a Suez for us 306 00:12:37,140 --> 00:12:39,720 it's not the same as Hong Kong let's 307 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:41,760 just all right correct correct the whole 308 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:43,320 correct the whole analysis well the 309 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:46,260 status is completely different uh you 310 00:12:46,260 --> 00:12:49,079 know as a former British colony Hong 311 00:12:49,079 --> 00:12:53,100 Kong uh was not a democracy uh never had 312 00:12:53,100 --> 00:12:57,000 democracy and what's happened is that Xi 313 00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:58,980 Jinping the Chinese president has simply 314 00:12:58,980 --> 00:13:02,279 expedited the Takeover of Hong Kong 315 00:13:02,279 --> 00:13:03,899 which was hope supposed to happen 316 00:13:03,899 --> 00:13:07,019 somewhat later this Century there's no 317 00:13:07,019 --> 00:13:09,360 act of Congress that obliges the US 318 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:12,060 government to give a hoot about that and 319 00:13:12,060 --> 00:13:15,000 that's why it was always pretty much a 320 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:17,579 very faint reflex and action when 321 00:13:17,579 --> 00:13:19,200 Americans complained about what was 322 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:20,820 happening in Hong Kong Britain should 323 00:13:20,820 --> 00:13:21,959 have been complaining a lot louder 324 00:13:21,959 --> 00:13:23,639 because it was actually an agreement 325 00:13:23,639 --> 00:13:25,079 with Britain that the Chinese were 326 00:13:25,079 --> 00:13:27,480 violating taiwan's different I mean 327 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:29,399 Taiwan has been a successful vibrant 328 00:13:29,399 --> 00:13:31,139 democracy since the end of the military 329 00:13:31,139 --> 00:13:32,820 dictatorship there it's one of the most 330 00:13:32,820 --> 00:13:35,040 successful economies in the world part 331 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:38,040 of its success is due to its being now 332 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:40,139 the leading center for the production of 333 00:13:40,139 --> 00:13:43,100 the most sophisticated semiconductors 334 00:13:43,100 --> 00:13:47,279 tsmc the time ON Semiconductor companies 335 00:13:47,279 --> 00:13:50,459 set up by Morris Chang there has become 336 00:13:50,459 --> 00:13:53,279 the world leader and so economically 337 00:13:53,279 --> 00:13:57,480 control of Taiwan matters a lot much 338 00:13:57,480 --> 00:13:59,820 more than the control of of Hong Kong in 339 00:13:59,820 --> 00:14:03,360 terms of the global economy now the the 340 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:05,399 critical point to notice here is that 341 00:14:05,399 --> 00:14:07,980 taiwan's not Israel nor is it Ukraine 342 00:14:07,980 --> 00:14:09,839 you haven't mentioned Ukraine I'm about 343 00:14:09,839 --> 00:14:12,240 to but we need to get to that because it 344 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:16,139 is a an important subplot in Cold War II 345 00:14:16,139 --> 00:14:19,139 but just in the short run think of the 346 00:14:19,139 --> 00:14:21,420 following sequence of events there is an 347 00:14:21,420 --> 00:14:24,000 election coming up in Taiwan in January 348 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:27,600 of next year it is not at all clear uh 349 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:29,700 who is going to win the Chinese are 350 00:14:29,700 --> 00:14:31,620 already calling one of the candidates a 351 00:14:31,620 --> 00:14:34,800 pro-independence candidate there is 352 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:37,079 therefore a non-trivial scenario in 353 00:14:37,079 --> 00:14:38,700 which in the course of that election 354 00:14:38,700 --> 00:14:41,820 China interferes even more than it did 355 00:14:41,820 --> 00:14:44,760 in the election of 2020. I was in Taiwan 356 00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:47,399 in January of 2020 and it was extremely 357 00:14:47,399 --> 00:14:49,320 striking to me how much the Chinese were 358 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:51,720 trying to do to influence that election 359 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:54,600 and how little they achieved why because 360 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:57,060 the Taiwanese population over the years 361 00:14:57,060 --> 00:14:59,940 has moved steadily away from the 362 00:14:59,940 --> 00:15:02,519 mainland remember at one point a very 363 00:15:02,519 --> 00:15:04,139 large number of people had come there 364 00:15:04,139 --> 00:15:05,699 from the mainland yes of course they 365 00:15:05,699 --> 00:15:07,920 were Chiang kai-sheks people who lost 366 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:09,779 the Chinese Civil War lost the 367 00:15:09,779 --> 00:15:12,300 revolution in 1949 retreated to Taiwan 368 00:15:12,300 --> 00:15:14,820 they still retained strong affinities 369 00:15:14,820 --> 00:15:16,800 with the mainland well Thai time has 370 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,440 passed today's Taiwanese particularly 371 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:21,959 young Taiwanese of no real Affinity with 372 00:15:21,959 --> 00:15:24,000 the mainland controlled as it is by the 373 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:25,560 Chinese Communist party they have a lot 374 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:28,079 of affinity with the very successful and 375 00:15:28,079 --> 00:15:30,720 vibrant democracy that they have come to 376 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:33,600 enjoy there and so I think a big problem 377 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:35,880 from the vantage point of Beijing is 378 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:38,699 that Taiwan is drifting away in ways 379 00:15:38,699 --> 00:15:41,220 that nobody in the 1970s foresaw I think 380 00:15:41,220 --> 00:15:42,959 many people in the 70s thought it would 381 00:15:42,959 --> 00:15:45,120 only be a matter of time before Taiwan 382 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:47,220 was folded in to the Embrace of the 383 00:15:47,220 --> 00:15:49,260 Mainland that is not happening and the 384 00:15:49,260 --> 00:15:51,600 Chinese haven't been able to devise any 385 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:54,120 political way of stopping this 386 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:56,100 Divergence from happening and I'll say 387 00:15:56,100 --> 00:15:58,500 one final thing that is very important 388 00:15:58,500 --> 00:15:59,639 to understand 389 00:15:59,639 --> 00:16:04,019 Xi Jinping has broken with convention by 390 00:16:04,019 --> 00:16:06,300 extending his time as president as 391 00:16:06,300 --> 00:16:08,100 leader of the CCP and of the Chinese 392 00:16:08,100 --> 00:16:12,420 State why his main argument for having 393 00:16:12,420 --> 00:16:16,019 that extension of term was Taiwan Xi 394 00:16:16,019 --> 00:16:18,420 Jinping has said to those close to him 395 00:16:18,420 --> 00:16:19,740 and it's pretty clear from public 396 00:16:19,740 --> 00:16:22,680 statements too that he regards bringing 397 00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:25,320 time on time on under the control of the 398 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:28,680 CCP as the Keystone Capstone the 399 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:30,540 crowning achievement of his career the 400 00:16:30,540 --> 00:16:33,000 reason that he's staying in power for 401 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:35,220 longer than his predecessors so it's a 402 00:16:35,220 --> 00:16:38,759 very high stakes issue for him and we of 403 00:16:38,759 --> 00:16:40,380 course in turn have made it a 404 00:16:40,380 --> 00:16:42,540 high-stakes issue for us the more 405 00:16:42,540 --> 00:16:44,639 unambiguous we are about our commitment 406 00:16:44,639 --> 00:16:47,100 to Taiwan the more of a problem that is 407 00:16:47,100 --> 00:16:49,440 for Xi Jinping so I just gave you a 408 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:50,820 scenario under which we could sort of 409 00:16:50,820 --> 00:16:52,980 defuse it all and turn our heads and and 410 00:16:52,980 --> 00:16:54,480 let it all go away 411 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:57,000 and you said no no no no no Taiwan is 412 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,519 not at all like Hong Kong but also Peter 413 00:16:59,519 --> 00:17:03,420 bear in mind that on polling Americans 414 00:17:03,420 --> 00:17:06,000 now care about this issue way more than 415 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,339 they used to the Chicago council at the 416 00:17:08,339 --> 00:17:10,439 poll in 2021 that showed that for the 417 00:17:10,439 --> 00:17:12,299 first time more than half of Americans 418 00:17:12,299 --> 00:17:14,579 thought that if the Chinese moved 419 00:17:14,579 --> 00:17:17,579 against Taiwan the U.S should deploy its 420 00:17:17,579 --> 00:17:20,579 military in response 52 percent okay so 421 00:17:20,579 --> 00:17:22,980 so that brings us to this question of 422 00:17:22,980 --> 00:17:26,819 Xi Jinping is now in beginning his third 423 00:17:26,819 --> 00:17:29,520 term of eight years is that have I got 424 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:30,780 that right 425 00:17:30,780 --> 00:17:34,200 wait is there is there no that can't be 426 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:35,580 wrong he's not term limited because he 427 00:17:35,580 --> 00:17:36,780 gets to do more or less whatever he 428 00:17:36,780 --> 00:17:38,880 wants to do but there is an expectation 429 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,220 five years five is five year plus five 430 00:17:41,220 --> 00:17:43,020 years okay 431 00:17:43,020 --> 00:17:45,179 single digit number of years however let 432 00:17:45,179 --> 00:17:46,440 me quote to you from this leaked 433 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:47,640 memorandum 434 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:50,039 uh leaked her last year Air Force 435 00:17:50,039 --> 00:17:52,799 General Mike minahan 436 00:17:52,799 --> 00:17:54,720 my gut tells me this is to his own 437 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:56,700 officers this past excuse me it was this 438 00:17:56,700 --> 00:17:58,620 year in January my gut tells me we will 439 00:17:58,620 --> 00:18:01,799 fight in 2025 United States presidential 440 00:18:01,799 --> 00:18:04,799 elections are in 2020 2024 and will 441 00:18:04,799 --> 00:18:06,780 offer Chinese president Xi Jinping a 442 00:18:06,780 --> 00:18:09,120 distracted America taiwan's presidential 443 00:18:09,120 --> 00:18:12,299 elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi 444 00:18:12,299 --> 00:18:15,240 Jinping a reason to attack to which you 445 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:16,080 add 446 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:19,919 he's now in a single digit third term 447 00:18:19,919 --> 00:18:22,380 we're now talking about one two three 448 00:18:22,380 --> 00:18:25,080 four five six or if minahan is to be 449 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:25,980 believed 450 00:18:25,980 --> 00:18:27,539 two years or less 451 00:18:27,539 --> 00:18:30,240 does it feel that urgent to you 452 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:32,280 yes I'm still adjusting to the idea that 453 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:33,900 we're in the mountain passes of Cold War 454 00:18:33,900 --> 00:18:35,640 and now you're saying wait a moment 455 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:36,840 there could be we have to make a 456 00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:39,660 decision whether to defend Taiwan 457 00:18:39,660 --> 00:18:42,419 in some small number of years well I 458 00:18:42,419 --> 00:18:44,100 think Cold War II is happening faster 459 00:18:44,100 --> 00:18:46,260 than cold war one let me try and 460 00:18:46,260 --> 00:18:47,700 illustrate the point 461 00:18:47,700 --> 00:18:51,360 when George Orwell first used the term 462 00:18:51,360 --> 00:18:56,880 Cold War in 1945 almost nobody got the 463 00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,220 point at all was extraordinary essay 464 00:18:59,220 --> 00:19:01,919 about the future in which there would be 465 00:19:01,919 --> 00:19:05,400 nuclear superpowers nailed it he defined 466 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,039 Cold War as a piece that is no peace and 467 00:19:08,039 --> 00:19:09,960 predicted that nuclear-armed superpowers 468 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:12,120 he said there would be three the United 469 00:19:12,120 --> 00:19:15,000 States the Soviet Union and China and he 470 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:16,740 said in this world this is of course is 471 00:19:16,740 --> 00:19:19,620 an anticipation of his great novel 1984. 472 00:19:19,620 --> 00:19:23,220 there would be this permanently armed 473 00:19:23,220 --> 00:19:26,340 peace that is no peace it took years for 474 00:19:26,340 --> 00:19:28,020 Americans to get the point when Winston 475 00:19:28,020 --> 00:19:30,419 Churchill gave the famous iron Curtin 476 00:19:30,419 --> 00:19:33,299 speech in Fulton Missouri the New York 477 00:19:33,299 --> 00:19:34,919 Times was highly critical of the speech 478 00:19:34,919 --> 00:19:36,780 and accused him of being a warmonger 479 00:19:36,780 --> 00:19:40,440 most Americans didn't get it until North 480 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:44,460 Korea invaded South Korea in 1950 and 481 00:19:44,460 --> 00:19:46,500 that's the analogy I'd like to suggest 482 00:19:46,500 --> 00:19:49,500 to you with Ukraine the war in Ukraine 483 00:19:49,500 --> 00:19:53,460 is the first Hot War of Cold War II and 484 00:19:53,460 --> 00:19:55,740 just as the Korean war was the first Hot 485 00:19:55,740 --> 00:19:58,679 War of Cold War one it's the moment of 486 00:19:58,679 --> 00:20:00,660 Revelation in which people in the United 487 00:20:00,660 --> 00:20:04,260 States begin to see that this is serious 488 00:20:04,260 --> 00:20:07,080 remember Putin would not have invaded 489 00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:09,419 Ukraine without a green light from Xi 490 00:20:09,419 --> 00:20:11,580 Jinping he would not still be able to 491 00:20:11,580 --> 00:20:13,799 prosecute his War without the 492 00:20:13,799 --> 00:20:16,020 substantial economic support he gets 493 00:20:16,020 --> 00:20:19,140 from trade with China so I think we 494 00:20:19,140 --> 00:20:21,720 should imagine the Korean War Ukraine 495 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:25,260 war analogy that gets us to the 1950s 496 00:20:25,260 --> 00:20:27,299 that's the sort of early 50s and the war 497 00:20:27,299 --> 00:20:28,620 is going to play out pretty much like 498 00:20:28,620 --> 00:20:30,900 the Korean war did a year of really 499 00:20:30,900 --> 00:20:32,700 serious fighting and back and forth and 500 00:20:32,700 --> 00:20:34,559 then attrition and it all gets bogged 501 00:20:34,559 --> 00:20:36,780 down and stalemate and then eventually 502 00:20:36,780 --> 00:20:38,940 you start some kind of armistice process 503 00:20:38,940 --> 00:20:40,620 you never actually get to peace I could 504 00:20:40,620 --> 00:20:43,260 see all of that playing out but what 505 00:20:43,260 --> 00:20:45,059 we're talking about with respect to 506 00:20:45,059 --> 00:20:47,760 Taiwan is the equivalent of the Cuban 507 00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:49,919 Missile Crisis which happened as you 508 00:20:49,919 --> 00:20:52,260 know Peter in 1962. I think we could get 509 00:20:52,260 --> 00:20:55,620 to 19 62 a lot faster than they did in 510 00:20:55,620 --> 00:20:58,200 Cold War one and we'll call it the 511 00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:00,720 Taiwan semiconductor crisis and here's 512 00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:02,100 the interesting thing about this crisis 513 00:21:02,100 --> 00:21:05,100 I do not know if it happens next year if 514 00:21:05,100 --> 00:21:07,620 it happens in 2025 if it doesn't happen 515 00:21:07,620 --> 00:21:10,140 until 2028 but it is highly likely to 516 00:21:10,140 --> 00:21:12,480 happen this decade the variables that 517 00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:14,940 are crucial here are the Chinese are not 518 00:21:14,940 --> 00:21:16,220 ready 519 00:21:16,220 --> 00:21:20,280 militarily to achieve a successful 520 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:22,559 amphibious invasion they they would be 521 00:21:22,559 --> 00:21:24,179 taking immense risk if they did that now 522 00:21:24,179 --> 00:21:25,919 and I don't think they will I think 523 00:21:25,919 --> 00:21:28,559 they're in a position to blockade the 524 00:21:28,559 --> 00:21:30,000 island but I'm not sure they're ready 525 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:33,299 for the consequences if we decide to run 526 00:21:33,299 --> 00:21:36,600 that blockade and and take them on so I 527 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:38,940 think they're not quite ready for prime 528 00:21:38,940 --> 00:21:40,559 time but they cannot wait indefinitely 529 00:21:40,559 --> 00:21:41,700 why 530 00:21:41,700 --> 00:21:43,620 because to go back to our earlier 531 00:21:43,620 --> 00:21:46,559 discussion every passing year gives the 532 00:21:46,559 --> 00:21:49,679 United States time to get Taiwan ready 533 00:21:49,679 --> 00:21:52,620 to defend itself it's not now but we 534 00:21:52,620 --> 00:21:55,140 know that this is the issue and we have 535 00:21:55,140 --> 00:21:58,140 got a coherent strategy which we could 536 00:21:58,140 --> 00:22:01,559 execute to make Taiwan much harder to 537 00:22:01,559 --> 00:22:03,299 invade than it currently is and that's 538 00:22:03,299 --> 00:22:05,520 why I think the time frame is measurable 539 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,280 in in single Digi years it's not 540 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:10,620 something that Xi Jinping can say oh 541 00:22:10,620 --> 00:22:14,580 I'll take care of it in 2030 that is 542 00:22:14,580 --> 00:22:17,700 just not an option for him so 543 00:22:17,700 --> 00:22:20,460 I return though to the you're saying all 544 00:22:20,460 --> 00:22:21,900 kinds of fascinating things about the 545 00:22:21,900 --> 00:22:24,120 people of Taiwan I understand that we 546 00:22:24,120 --> 00:22:26,039 consider Taiwan part of China China 547 00:22:26,039 --> 00:22:27,840 obviously considers Taiwan part of China 548 00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:30,480 but what you're saying is that whatever 549 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:33,840 this diplomatic I won't go so far as to 550 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:35,460 call it a fiction but this diplomatic 551 00:22:35,460 --> 00:22:37,679 form of words 552 00:22:37,679 --> 00:22:41,520 even as we now know 553 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:43,320 as a result of the Russian invasion 554 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,659 Ukraine has become a real Nation it 555 00:22:45,659 --> 00:22:47,760 exists in people's minds they now think 556 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:49,799 of themselves as Ukrainian in a way that 557 00:22:49,799 --> 00:22:52,740 may have been ambiguous before 558 00:22:52,740 --> 00:22:55,740 Taiwan has some kind of entity I don't 559 00:22:55,740 --> 00:22:58,620 know that the word to use is Nation but 560 00:22:58,620 --> 00:23:01,919 in the minds of the Taiwanese people 561 00:23:01,919 --> 00:23:04,500 they are not Chinese 562 00:23:04,500 --> 00:23:06,120 question then 563 00:23:06,120 --> 00:23:08,580 why aren't they spending more time and 564 00:23:08,580 --> 00:23:10,080 resources why aren't they spending quite 565 00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:12,000 a lot more resource making themselves 566 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:13,980 harder to take on this is the piece of 567 00:23:13,980 --> 00:23:16,740 the puzzle I cannot the president's eye 568 00:23:16,740 --> 00:23:18,960 comes over here she's seems courageous 569 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,900 she's insists on Democracy insists on 570 00:23:21,900 --> 00:23:23,880 free markets takes that meeting with 571 00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:25,320 Kevin McCarthy knowing that it's going 572 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:27,240 to cause all kinds of Mayhem back at 573 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:28,980 home and indeed it does 574 00:23:28,980 --> 00:23:31,380 and yet they only spend 2.1 percent of 575 00:23:31,380 --> 00:23:33,720 defense of the strategist Edwin lud fox 576 00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:36,240 says apparently the Taiwan strategy is 577 00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:37,620 to let us defend them while their 578 00:23:37,620 --> 00:23:40,380 children play video games I mean it this 579 00:23:40,380 --> 00:23:43,020 doesn't fit all its work for Germany I 580 00:23:43,020 --> 00:23:44,820 mean think of all the countries that 581 00:23:44,820 --> 00:23:47,820 have been free riding on uh on the U.S 582 00:23:47,820 --> 00:23:51,059 uh security guarantee since Cold War one 583 00:23:51,059 --> 00:23:54,720 I mean this is a not a a bug it's a 584 00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:56,400 feature of cold war that the United 585 00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:58,740 States is overwhelmingly the dominant 586 00:23:58,740 --> 00:24:01,620 supplier of security and it's only in a 587 00:24:01,620 --> 00:24:03,480 country like Israel that discovered the 588 00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:05,760 hard way that it couldn't rely entirely 589 00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:07,679 on the United States in 1973 when the 590 00:24:07,679 --> 00:24:09,240 United States was well what kind of help 591 00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,340 you yeah but you know first you have to 592 00:24:11,340 --> 00:24:14,640 negotiate I think for the Israelis 73 593 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:16,559 was the The Moment of Truth when they 594 00:24:16,559 --> 00:24:19,140 realized that the U.S might be an 595 00:24:19,140 --> 00:24:21,240 important part of their future security 596 00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,280 but they'd have to be able to fend for 597 00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:25,440 themselves because Uncle Sam is not 598 00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:27,539 entirely reliable Ukraine isn't that 599 00:24:27,539 --> 00:24:29,520 different I mean Ukraine was not ready 600 00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,400 for Prime Time on the eve of the Russian 601 00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,520 invasion it had to scramble and only 602 00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:38,880 barely survived the initial assault on 603 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:42,600 Kiev it surprised Everybody by its 604 00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:44,220 ability to withstand that initial 605 00:24:44,220 --> 00:24:46,919 assault but I think you have to give me 606 00:24:46,919 --> 00:24:48,419 the difference there didn't he I don't 607 00:24:48,419 --> 00:24:50,159 know if it was really old zelensky 608 00:24:50,159 --> 00:24:53,159 ordinary ukrainians I was in Kiev late 609 00:24:53,159 --> 00:24:54,840 last year and I was very struck by the 610 00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:56,400 fact that wherever I went ordinary 611 00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:58,440 people were wholly committed to 612 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,140 resisting the Russian invasion so we we 613 00:25:01,140 --> 00:25:04,980 don't know how Taiwan would respond to a 614 00:25:04,980 --> 00:25:07,020 blockade by China we don't know how at 615 00:25:07,020 --> 00:25:08,820 the time when he would respond to an 616 00:25:08,820 --> 00:25:11,039 attempted amphibious Invasion most 617 00:25:11,039 --> 00:25:13,559 people before February 22nd last year 618 00:25:13,559 --> 00:25:15,360 would have predicted that Ukraine would 619 00:25:15,360 --> 00:25:17,220 fold quite quickly so I don't think we 620 00:25:17,220 --> 00:25:20,280 should assume that Taiwan is somehow on 621 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:21,900 typical it's it's actually behaving 622 00:25:21,900 --> 00:25:24,960 quite rationally as something as a 623 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:28,200 country that the US has made a security 624 00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:29,700 commitment to 625 00:25:29,700 --> 00:25:31,740 having traveled in both Ukraine and 626 00:25:31,740 --> 00:25:34,200 Taiwan I would say it's hard to imagine 627 00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,120 the time when he's fighting as 628 00:25:36,120 --> 00:25:38,039 tenaciously and sustaining his heavy 629 00:25:38,039 --> 00:25:40,620 costs as the ukrainians have in the past 630 00:25:40,620 --> 00:25:42,779 year but there's no doubt in my mind 631 00:25:42,779 --> 00:25:46,620 that they see themselves as on a road to 632 00:25:46,620 --> 00:25:50,279 Independence and that's something that 633 00:25:50,279 --> 00:25:52,080 is quite important I think there's 634 00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:54,059 there's considerable Unity actually when 635 00:25:54,059 --> 00:25:55,559 you look at Taiwanese polling about 636 00:25:55,559 --> 00:25:58,320 where the country's future lies very 637 00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:00,960 very few times think it lies as being 638 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:04,080 subjugated by the CCP so 639 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,840 the Ukraine Taiwan question here there 640 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:09,120 are some commentators our mutual friend 641 00:26:09,120 --> 00:26:11,220 Elbridge Colby perhaps is the most 642 00:26:11,220 --> 00:26:13,919 notable who worries that Ukraine is a 643 00:26:13,919 --> 00:26:15,179 distraction 644 00:26:15,179 --> 00:26:16,740 the United States has only so many 645 00:26:16,740 --> 00:26:19,380 resources including mental resources you 646 00:26:19,380 --> 00:26:21,240 ask the Pentagon to worry about Taiwan 647 00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:23,100 and Ukraine and the Pentagon says and if 648 00:26:23,100 --> 00:26:24,539 they won't say it formally but they'll 649 00:26:24,539 --> 00:26:25,980 say in effect wait a minute which is the 650 00:26:25,980 --> 00:26:28,020 real battle all right 651 00:26:28,020 --> 00:26:29,820 so Ukraine is 652 00:26:29,820 --> 00:26:33,059 a distraction possibly and then others 653 00:26:33,059 --> 00:26:34,620 argue our colleague here at the Hoover 654 00:26:34,620 --> 00:26:36,299 institution Stephen cotkin would argue 655 00:26:36,299 --> 00:26:39,539 that the def the defense of Taiwan runs 656 00:26:39,539 --> 00:26:42,840 through Ukraine which is it well the 657 00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:44,760 thing about cold Wars is that you don't 658 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:48,179 get to choose you have in fact what I 659 00:26:48,179 --> 00:26:49,820 call the three body of water problem 660 00:26:49,820 --> 00:26:53,340 namely that you have to be ready uh to 661 00:26:53,340 --> 00:26:56,820 go to uh war or at least to deter your 662 00:26:56,820 --> 00:26:59,760 foes in Europe the North Atlantic you 663 00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:01,440 have to be able to deter them also in 664 00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,799 the Pacific and East Asia and let's not 665 00:27:04,799 --> 00:27:06,840 forget the Persian Gulf and the US 666 00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:08,460 doesn't have the option to say oh I'm 667 00:27:08,460 --> 00:27:10,440 just going to Pivot to Asia can you guys 668 00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,240 all just behave yourselves in Europe and 669 00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:14,340 the Middle East any more than it did in 670 00:27:14,340 --> 00:27:16,919 Cold War One the problem about cold war 671 00:27:16,919 --> 00:27:19,980 is it's Global China can now play 672 00:27:19,980 --> 00:27:22,020 globally it is now a player in the 673 00:27:22,020 --> 00:27:24,179 Middle East so the US doesn't have the 674 00:27:24,179 --> 00:27:26,220 luxury of being able to choose it has to 675 00:27:26,220 --> 00:27:29,820 be ready to contain Chinese expansion in 676 00:27:29,820 --> 00:27:31,740 all three at once 677 00:27:31,740 --> 00:27:34,440 that's my answer to this question it's 678 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,020 not a choice now I think Elbridge Corby 679 00:27:37,020 --> 00:27:39,059 is right about one thing and here he and 680 00:27:39,059 --> 00:27:42,419 I agree entirely the more resources the 681 00:27:42,419 --> 00:27:44,700 United States puts into the Ukraine war 682 00:27:44,700 --> 00:27:47,820 the more it runs down it stalks of of 683 00:27:47,820 --> 00:27:51,299 javelins and stingers and high Mars the 684 00:27:51,299 --> 00:27:53,460 less it has available for any Showdown 685 00:27:53,460 --> 00:27:56,940 uh in East Asia because we don't have 686 00:27:56,940 --> 00:27:59,220 the military-industrial complex we used 687 00:27:59,220 --> 00:28:01,799 to have that's to say it takes a long 688 00:28:01,799 --> 00:28:05,580 time to replenish these stocks there's 689 00:28:05,580 --> 00:28:07,620 an extremely interesting report on empty 690 00:28:07,620 --> 00:28:09,720 bins that came out recently from one of 691 00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:11,700 the Washington think tanks pointing out 692 00:28:11,700 --> 00:28:13,500 that if there were to be a war over 693 00:28:13,500 --> 00:28:16,260 Taiwan now we would run out of stuff 694 00:28:16,260 --> 00:28:18,840 very rapidly particularly the Precision 695 00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:20,880 missiles which are such a crucial part 696 00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,279 of the American way of water day the 697 00:28:23,279 --> 00:28:25,440 problem about a war over Taiwan Jim 698 00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:27,659 staff readers makes this point uh very 699 00:28:27,659 --> 00:28:29,220 well in a book he wrote in the subject 700 00:28:29,220 --> 00:28:31,820 is that it could get very big very fast 701 00:28:31,820 --> 00:28:34,260 a limited War over time was a little 702 00:28:34,260 --> 00:28:36,720 hard to imagine just as a limited War 703 00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,299 over Cuba was very hard to imagine 704 00:28:39,299 --> 00:28:42,000 I want to try and suggest to you a very 705 00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:44,640 important part of my analogy 706 00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:46,919 remember we said Cold War one and Cold 707 00:28:46,919 --> 00:28:48,779 War II are not exactly the same any more 708 00:28:48,779 --> 00:28:50,460 than World War one and World War II were 709 00:28:50,460 --> 00:28:52,200 exactly the same but you didn't really 710 00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:55,260 argue about there being world wars so in 711 00:28:55,260 --> 00:28:57,120 Cold War II there's a very important 712 00:28:57,120 --> 00:28:59,220 difference between the Cuban Missile 713 00:28:59,220 --> 00:29:01,200 Crisis and the Taiwan semiconductor 714 00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,960 crisis and that is that in In Cold War 715 00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:05,820 II we are the Soviet Union 716 00:29:05,820 --> 00:29:08,580 because in Cold War II it's the 717 00:29:08,580 --> 00:29:10,200 Communist part that gets to impose the 718 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:12,480 blockade whereas it was John F Kennedy 719 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:14,520 who blockaded Cuba we called it a 720 00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:16,080 quarantine but it was essentially a 721 00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:18,179 blockade and it was the Soviets it was 722 00:29:18,179 --> 00:29:20,520 Khrushchev who had to send a naval Force 723 00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,159 to Cuba that was the most risky moment 724 00:29:23,159 --> 00:29:25,919 in the whole of Cold War one only this 725 00:29:25,919 --> 00:29:27,539 time around the Buddha's on the other 726 00:29:27,539 --> 00:29:30,299 foot it's China that gets to has the 727 00:29:30,299 --> 00:29:32,520 option to blockade Taiwan we would then 728 00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,580 have to send a naval Force to run that 729 00:29:35,580 --> 00:29:38,640 blockade we would be in the Khrushchev 730 00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:40,980 situation and that's what makes me the 731 00:29:40,980 --> 00:29:43,440 most nervous about this I mean generally 732 00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:45,299 speaking rerunning the Cuban Missile 733 00:29:45,299 --> 00:29:47,640 Crisis is a bad idea it was the most 734 00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:49,679 dangerous moment the nearest we came to 735 00:29:49,679 --> 00:29:51,240 World War III in the whole of the Cold 736 00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:53,700 War and in many ways it was just luck 737 00:29:53,700 --> 00:29:56,340 sheer luck that it didn't become World 738 00:29:56,340 --> 00:29:58,559 War III there was a Soviet submarine 739 00:29:58,559 --> 00:30:01,620 commander who gave the order to fire a 740 00:30:01,620 --> 00:30:04,380 nuclear torpedo at U.S naval surface 741 00:30:04,380 --> 00:30:05,460 ships 742 00:30:05,460 --> 00:30:08,880 and it was only because by chance a 743 00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:10,919 superior officer was on the submarine 744 00:30:10,919 --> 00:30:13,500 and able to overrule him that that 745 00:30:13,500 --> 00:30:15,779 didn't happen if it had happened we 746 00:30:15,779 --> 00:30:18,179 would have had Armageddon why would you 747 00:30:18,179 --> 00:30:20,760 want to re-run that game and and expect 748 00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:23,640 the outcome always to be good so we 749 00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:25,200 shouldn't be running the Cuban Missile 750 00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:27,600 Crisis again but we certainly shouldn't 751 00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:30,120 be re-running it when we get to play the 752 00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:31,799 Soviet Union because remember what 753 00:30:31,799 --> 00:30:34,080 happened in the end Khrushchev had to 754 00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:37,260 back down he took a deal with the 755 00:30:37,260 --> 00:30:39,539 Kennedy Brothers but it wasn't public 756 00:30:39,539 --> 00:30:41,340 and so it looked like he'd been 757 00:30:41,340 --> 00:30:42,980 humiliated and it was pretty much 758 00:30:42,980 --> 00:30:45,179 curtains for his career at that point 759 00:30:45,179 --> 00:30:47,820 but it was also a major setback for the 760 00:30:47,820 --> 00:30:49,559 Soviets we don't want to put ourselves 761 00:30:49,559 --> 00:30:53,399 in that position so my view is we have 762 00:30:53,399 --> 00:30:56,100 to follow through with the commitment we 763 00:30:56,100 --> 00:30:57,779 made to Ukraine we are now in a position 764 00:30:57,779 --> 00:31:00,059 where we cannot afford for Ukraine to 765 00:31:00,059 --> 00:31:02,820 lose problem is China can't afford for 766 00:31:02,820 --> 00:31:04,559 Russia to lose that's why this war is 767 00:31:04,559 --> 00:31:05,880 going to keep going because both 768 00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:08,419 superpowers are essentially now 769 00:31:08,419 --> 00:31:10,700 backing one of the dogs in the fight 770 00:31:10,700 --> 00:31:13,620 while that carries on we have got to 771 00:31:13,620 --> 00:31:15,299 come up with a good answer to the 772 00:31:15,299 --> 00:31:17,820 question how do we deter China from 773 00:31:17,820 --> 00:31:19,980 invading or blockading Taiwan because 774 00:31:19,980 --> 00:31:22,320 right now what we've got is some good 775 00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,899 rhetoric and some very poor strategic 776 00:31:24,899 --> 00:31:27,120 options the war games don't always turn 777 00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:29,039 out very well there was a recent one 778 00:31:29,039 --> 00:31:30,600 which strongly suggested it would go 779 00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:33,419 very badly for the United States I think 780 00:31:33,419 --> 00:31:35,760 we've got a very short period of time to 781 00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:37,020 come up with a good answer to that 782 00:31:37,020 --> 00:31:40,620 question if we don't then we run the 783 00:31:40,620 --> 00:31:43,860 risk of having our Bluff cold I mean 784 00:31:43,860 --> 00:31:45,960 right now we're basically talking loudly 785 00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,000 and carrying a small stick when it comes 786 00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:49,620 to Taiwan and everybody knows that 787 00:31:49,620 --> 00:31:51,419 that's the wrong way around all right 788 00:31:51,419 --> 00:31:53,760 step back from Taiwan 789 00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:56,460 two or three three three big questions 790 00:31:56,460 --> 00:31:58,200 each one of which we could devote an 791 00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:02,279 entire program to so so I suppose so I 792 00:32:02,279 --> 00:32:05,039 suppose I am saying that although 793 00:32:05,039 --> 00:32:07,919 what do they believe couple quotations 794 00:32:07,919 --> 00:32:09,600 here guy storming and City Journal in 795 00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:12,000 what sense is the Communist Party of 796 00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:13,740 China still communist it represents a 797 00:32:13,740 --> 00:32:16,440 Marxist liturgy that everyone recites 798 00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:18,720 and in which No One Believes close quote 799 00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:20,279 Stephen cotkin 800 00:32:20,279 --> 00:32:23,279 seated right there on this program quote 801 00:32:23,279 --> 00:32:25,559 we all thought they were cynics 802 00:32:25,559 --> 00:32:27,980 that they just mouth communist ideology 803 00:32:27,980 --> 00:32:31,799 but some of them believe it not only do 804 00:32:31,799 --> 00:32:34,559 some of them believe it but communism is 805 00:32:34,559 --> 00:32:37,860 inherent in the system okay 806 00:32:37,860 --> 00:32:41,159 so even as during Cold War one there was 807 00:32:41,159 --> 00:32:43,440 this constant back and forth between no 808 00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:46,080 no no it's just another Imperial power 809 00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:48,360 this is another iteration of great power 810 00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:50,940 struggles we know roughly what to expect 811 00:32:50,940 --> 00:32:52,500 of them 812 00:32:52,500 --> 00:32:56,940 as against no no they're Communists they 813 00:32:56,940 --> 00:32:59,340 have a fundamentally different view of 814 00:32:59,340 --> 00:33:01,740 the relation of man to government of man 815 00:33:01,740 --> 00:33:05,340 to God of one Society to another 816 00:33:05,340 --> 00:33:08,279 and their ultimate aim do them the 817 00:33:08,279 --> 00:33:09,779 courtesy of taking them seriously it's 818 00:33:09,779 --> 00:33:12,179 in writing they want communism to 819 00:33:12,179 --> 00:33:14,399 Triumph throughout the world 820 00:33:14,399 --> 00:33:16,320 we have the same back and forth today 821 00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:18,899 with China what do they believe 822 00:33:18,899 --> 00:33:21,799 while Professor kotzkin is always right 823 00:33:21,799 --> 00:33:24,659 that's rule one and Rule two is C rule 824 00:33:24,659 --> 00:33:26,399 one and on this issue of course he's 825 00:33:26,399 --> 00:33:29,460 right they are Marx leninists to be 826 00:33:29,460 --> 00:33:32,159 precise uh I think Xi Jinping in 827 00:33:32,159 --> 00:33:34,980 particular should be understood uh both 828 00:33:34,980 --> 00:33:37,140 seriously and literally as a Marxist 829 00:33:37,140 --> 00:33:40,140 lenus but again I spent time in China 830 00:33:40,140 --> 00:33:42,059 prior to the pandemic I was a visiting 831 00:33:42,059 --> 00:33:43,679 professor at singwa I remember having a 832 00:33:43,679 --> 00:33:45,600 meeting with the director of research at 833 00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:47,279 the Chinese Communist Party who's really 834 00:33:47,279 --> 00:33:49,919 rather an important figure and he said 835 00:33:49,919 --> 00:33:52,559 in the course of that meeting oh by the 836 00:33:52,559 --> 00:33:54,120 way the standing committee of the 837 00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,760 Pollock Bureau is re-reading Marx and 838 00:33:56,760 --> 00:34:00,539 Engels and so I think you should assume 839 00:34:00,539 --> 00:34:02,640 that there is an ideological piece to 840 00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:05,519 Cold War II many naive people think that 841 00:34:05,519 --> 00:34:07,260 that is not the case because they pay a 842 00:34:07,260 --> 00:34:10,619 visit to Beijing or Shanghai and they 843 00:34:10,619 --> 00:34:14,159 see what appeared to be business tycoons 844 00:34:14,159 --> 00:34:16,320 behaving much as business tycoons do 845 00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:19,619 they see tar blocks it looks familiar uh 846 00:34:19,619 --> 00:34:21,179 but you you really need to understand 847 00:34:21,179 --> 00:34:25,099 that behind this patina uh of capitalism 848 00:34:25,099 --> 00:34:27,839 uh there is still a Communist party in 849 00:34:27,839 --> 00:34:30,239 charge and if you look at what Xi 850 00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,719 Jinping says not at Davos but in Beijing 851 00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:37,199 or just look at other Communist party uh 852 00:34:37,199 --> 00:34:39,300 propaganda it's very striking how 853 00:34:39,300 --> 00:34:42,359 ideological things have become he has 854 00:34:42,359 --> 00:34:44,580 explicitly prohibited the teaching of 855 00:34:44,580 --> 00:34:47,879 democracy rule of law Western ideas like 856 00:34:47,879 --> 00:34:50,280 that at Chinese universities in the time 857 00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:51,839 I was at Singh Hua there was a 858 00:34:51,839 --> 00:34:54,179 noticeable change in the atmosphere it 859 00:34:54,179 --> 00:34:56,219 no longer became easy for me to talk in 860 00:34:56,219 --> 00:34:58,080 the classroom about the cultural 861 00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:00,780 revolution so let's later rest the idea 862 00:35:00,780 --> 00:35:02,820 that they're just pretending to be 863 00:35:02,820 --> 00:35:04,560 Communists that it's just the the 864 00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:07,200 Chinese capitalist party that's nonsense 865 00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:10,440 and the ideological piece explains the 866 00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:12,180 belief that there is an inevitable 867 00:35:12,180 --> 00:35:15,000 Collision coming with the imperialist 868 00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:17,640 West which I I think does underlie 869 00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:22,140 Chinese strategy Xi Jinping I think it's 870 00:35:22,140 --> 00:35:24,660 pretty clear has told the party and the 871 00:35:24,660 --> 00:35:27,780 country to prepare for war I've done a 872 00:35:27,780 --> 00:35:30,500 fair amount of reading in the kind of 873 00:35:30,500 --> 00:35:33,060 policy intellectual space the sort of 874 00:35:33,060 --> 00:35:35,220 Chinese equivalents of me and Stephen 875 00:35:35,220 --> 00:35:37,980 Cochin they talk a lot about China's 876 00:35:37,980 --> 00:35:40,140 role to displace the United States as 877 00:35:40,140 --> 00:35:43,680 the dominant Empire so remember Marxism 878 00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:46,500 leninism is an ideology of conflict it's 879 00:35:46,500 --> 00:35:48,420 an ideology with a historical 880 00:35:48,420 --> 00:35:51,780 determinist uh operating system and 881 00:35:51,780 --> 00:35:54,780 that's a reason to expect them to expect 882 00:35:54,780 --> 00:35:56,579 conflict 883 00:35:56,579 --> 00:35:58,800 Peter Peter Thiel in his book zero to 884 00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:00,420 one this we're talking about a book 885 00:36:00,420 --> 00:36:02,700 that's now a decade old so I I don't 886 00:36:02,700 --> 00:36:04,619 even know whether Peter would restate 887 00:36:04,619 --> 00:36:06,180 this today 888 00:36:06,180 --> 00:36:07,740 but here's what he said in zero to one 889 00:36:07,740 --> 00:36:09,420 the Chinese have been straightforwardly 890 00:36:09,420 --> 00:36:11,400 copying everything that has worked in 891 00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:12,900 the developed World 19th century 892 00:36:12,900 --> 00:36:14,940 railroads 20th Century air conditioning 893 00:36:14,940 --> 00:36:17,280 and even entire cities they might skip a 894 00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:19,140 few steps along the way going straight 895 00:36:19,140 --> 00:36:21,119 to wireless without installing landlines 896 00:36:21,119 --> 00:36:25,380 for instance but they're copying all the 897 00:36:25,380 --> 00:36:26,400 same 898 00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:30,980 okay this is an important point 899 00:36:31,140 --> 00:36:33,240 because there is an argument that what 900 00:36:33,240 --> 00:36:36,060 we have they outnumber us you've just 901 00:36:36,060 --> 00:36:37,980 explained that by at least one measure 902 00:36:37,980 --> 00:36:40,079 their economy is already bigger than 903 00:36:40,079 --> 00:36:42,420 ours the outnumbers if they choose to do 904 00:36:42,420 --> 00:36:44,760 so they can outspend us on defense 905 00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:47,720 here's what we have 906 00:36:48,060 --> 00:36:50,760 Democratic capitalism 907 00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:54,000 which means the ability to innovate we 908 00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:57,060 can stay a step ahead of them that's the 909 00:36:57,060 --> 00:37:00,420 Strategic fallback that we have 910 00:37:00,420 --> 00:37:02,040 Emily Weinstein of the Brookings 911 00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:03,900 institution discussions surrounding 912 00:37:03,900 --> 00:37:05,520 China as a strategic competitor have 913 00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:06,720 been shaped by the notion that only 914 00:37:06,720 --> 00:37:08,940 democracy can promote innovation 915 00:37:08,940 --> 00:37:12,540 every day China is disproving this line 916 00:37:12,540 --> 00:37:15,000 of thinking close quote 917 00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:16,859 they're a lot more Innovative than the 918 00:37:16,859 --> 00:37:18,839 Soviets were because they have a 919 00:37:18,839 --> 00:37:20,760 substantial part of their economy that 920 00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:22,800 is a market economy there's a reason why 921 00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,200 Chinese internet companies are after 922 00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:26,940 American internet companies the world's 923 00:37:26,940 --> 00:37:28,680 biggest and there are no European 924 00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:30,480 internet companies worth talking about 925 00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:33,000 and that's because the market operated 926 00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:34,920 when it came to developing the internet 927 00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:37,740 particularly commercializing it if one 928 00:37:37,740 --> 00:37:39,960 looks at the research that goes on in 929 00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:41,940 fields like artificial intelligence or 930 00:37:41,940 --> 00:37:44,820 Quantum Computing it's the US V China 931 00:37:44,820 --> 00:37:48,060 there are no other players in this race 932 00:37:48,060 --> 00:37:49,859 they weren't even award a bronze medal 933 00:37:49,859 --> 00:37:51,599 and that's one of the reasons that it's 934 00:37:51,599 --> 00:37:53,820 recognizably Cold War II because there 935 00:37:53,820 --> 00:37:56,520 are two super powers technologically now 936 00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:59,460 I think the Chinese are still silver 937 00:37:59,460 --> 00:38:01,980 medalists look at vaccines they utterly 938 00:38:01,980 --> 00:38:05,280 failed despite their boasts in 2020 that 939 00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:07,440 they would develop the vaccines against 940 00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:10,500 covert they didn't and we did and that's 941 00:38:10,500 --> 00:38:12,900 encouraging and I basically agree with 942 00:38:12,900 --> 00:38:16,619 your view that our system uh is likely 943 00:38:16,619 --> 00:38:20,280 to win The Innovation race but I have a 944 00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:22,500 couple of caveats number one we have to 945 00:38:22,500 --> 00:38:25,260 mean it what made Cold War one uh go 946 00:38:25,260 --> 00:38:27,180 well for the United States was that we 947 00:38:27,180 --> 00:38:29,339 understood we were in a technological 948 00:38:29,339 --> 00:38:31,859 race with a communist superpower that 949 00:38:31,859 --> 00:38:33,500 was determined to steal our technology 950 00:38:33,500 --> 00:38:36,660 uh and ultimately to burials when I 951 00:38:36,660 --> 00:38:38,820 started talking about Cold War II back 952 00:38:38,820 --> 00:38:42,060 in 2018 at the time when Huawei was the 953 00:38:42,060 --> 00:38:44,760 Talk of the Town I elicited initially 954 00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:46,560 skeptical reactions I can remember Eric 955 00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:49,560 Schmidt's face when I first said this at 956 00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:51,480 a meeting in San Francisco I said to him 957 00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:53,220 look the reason I'm saying this is we 958 00:38:53,220 --> 00:38:55,440 have to understand that we're in a cold 959 00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:58,020 war or we will lose it if we have open 960 00:38:58,020 --> 00:39:01,220 access research if the AI Labs at Google 961 00:39:01,220 --> 00:39:03,720 or for that matter at Stanford are 962 00:39:03,720 --> 00:39:07,560 freely accessible by CCP operatives then 963 00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:09,720 we're done so one reason for talking 964 00:39:09,720 --> 00:39:12,000 about this is to make Americans realize 965 00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:14,760 that we are in a race and we can't 966 00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:18,119 simply post it all online and not worry 967 00:39:18,119 --> 00:39:20,820 we have to protect our intellectual 968 00:39:20,820 --> 00:39:23,640 property they will steal it they have 969 00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:25,280 been stealing it because as you said 970 00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:28,140 that's the Communist way copy the 971 00:39:28,140 --> 00:39:29,880 technology and then paste it whether 972 00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:32,940 it's electric cars or for that matter 973 00:39:32,940 --> 00:39:36,720 giant online uh markets I mean what what 974 00:39:36,720 --> 00:39:40,200 is Alibaba if not an Amazon knockoff at 975 00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:42,060 some level but there's a second caveat 976 00:39:42,060 --> 00:39:45,060 about half the billion dollar unicorn 977 00:39:45,060 --> 00:39:47,460 companies created in this country since 978 00:39:47,460 --> 00:39:50,040 the mid-1990s were founded by that's 979 00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:51,660 right immigrants 980 00:39:51,660 --> 00:39:55,260 uh Elon Musk not homegrown and the list 981 00:39:55,260 --> 00:39:58,619 goes on if we don't keep the channel 982 00:39:58,619 --> 00:40:01,740 open for legal immigration of very 983 00:40:01,740 --> 00:40:04,260 talented ambitious people we will not 984 00:40:04,260 --> 00:40:06,599 win the technological race that's our 985 00:40:06,599 --> 00:40:08,700 super part importing talent and giving 986 00:40:08,700 --> 00:40:11,579 it capital that's the real magic of the 987 00:40:11,579 --> 00:40:12,839 United States I mean you can talk about 988 00:40:12,839 --> 00:40:14,579 Democratic capitalism and all of the 989 00:40:14,579 --> 00:40:17,220 rest of it you know the real the real 990 00:40:17,220 --> 00:40:19,020 secret source of the United States is 991 00:40:19,020 --> 00:40:21,540 magnet for talent here are the resources 992 00:40:21,540 --> 00:40:23,640 that you couldn't get Elon in South 993 00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:26,339 Africa or Canada only here is it 994 00:40:26,339 --> 00:40:28,140 possible for you to build those dreams 995 00:40:28,140 --> 00:40:30,960 the United States and I blame both the 996 00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:32,880 Trump and the Biden administrations for 997 00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:34,920 this has really screwed up its system of 998 00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:37,079 legal immigration the Democrats seem to 999 00:40:37,079 --> 00:40:38,760 have decided that illegal immigration 1000 00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:41,520 will do and we've effectively opened our 1001 00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:43,440 Southern border it's the worst kind of 1002 00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:46,320 immigration we need to get back to the 1003 00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:49,500 system we had uh and and which really 1004 00:40:49,500 --> 00:40:51,660 served us well from the 1980s of being 1005 00:40:51,660 --> 00:40:53,940 the country open to Talent if we don't 1006 00:40:53,940 --> 00:40:55,800 do that then I think China has a decent 1007 00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:58,560 chance if we can get the talent flowing 1008 00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:00,780 back into the United States they're done 1009 00:41:00,780 --> 00:41:02,280 because nobody wants to immigrate to 1010 00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:04,140 China you just ask people all over the 1011 00:41:04,140 --> 00:41:05,820 world where would you like to go it's 1012 00:41:05,820 --> 00:41:07,320 essentially the United States or the 1013 00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:08,940 most developed European countries or the 1014 00:41:08,940 --> 00:41:11,040 UK okay okay so that that brings me this 1015 00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:12,180 is another one of these big thing 1016 00:41:12,180 --> 00:41:14,180 questions 1017 00:41:14,180 --> 00:41:17,339 fukuyama writes the end of history after 1018 00:41:17,339 --> 00:41:20,280 the end of the first Cold War and he's 1019 00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:22,020 been misinterpreted all kinds of ways 1020 00:41:22,020 --> 00:41:24,420 but there is this notion that Democratic 1021 00:41:24,420 --> 00:41:27,420 capitalism is a natural end point 1022 00:41:27,420 --> 00:41:29,160 once you get there 1023 00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:31,260 you've gotten to the best kind of 1024 00:41:31,260 --> 00:41:33,780 society of which we know all right 1025 00:41:33,780 --> 00:41:35,760 now the Chinese come along and they seem 1026 00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:37,020 to have 1027 00:41:37,020 --> 00:41:39,420 something they seem to have a new model 1028 00:41:39,420 --> 00:41:41,700 of some kind they seem to have invented 1029 00:41:41,700 --> 00:41:44,460 a way of combining authoritarian central 1030 00:41:44,460 --> 00:41:47,640 control with at least enough free 1031 00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:49,680 markets to lift hundreds of millions of 1032 00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:50,579 people 1033 00:41:50,579 --> 00:41:54,060 out of poverty to achieve world standing 1034 00:41:54,060 --> 00:41:56,700 which they did not have just 20 years 1035 00:41:56,700 --> 00:41:58,079 ago 1036 00:41:58,079 --> 00:42:01,980 so in Cold War one one of the dangers 1037 00:42:01,980 --> 00:42:05,220 one of the threats to us was that the 1038 00:42:05,220 --> 00:42:07,880 Soviet system was intellectually 1039 00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:10,800 attractive there were communist fellow 1040 00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:12,599 Travelers throughout the United States 1041 00:42:12,599 --> 00:42:14,400 sympathy I don't know I'm trying to 1042 00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:17,040 avoid McCarthy I terms but they were 1043 00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:19,079 appealing 1044 00:42:19,079 --> 00:42:21,240 China doesn't seem to be appealing just 1045 00:42:21,240 --> 00:42:22,859 as you said nobody wants to immigrate to 1046 00:42:22,859 --> 00:42:25,260 China but then but then again we have 1047 00:42:25,260 --> 00:42:27,599 the third world Saudi Arabia and Iran 1048 00:42:27,599 --> 00:42:29,220 just did a deal together through China 1049 00:42:29,220 --> 00:42:31,619 do we have 1050 00:42:31,619 --> 00:42:36,540 China has wealth and it has brute power 1051 00:42:36,540 --> 00:42:40,560 does it have intellectual appeal 1052 00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:43,859 is it creating a new model that will be 1053 00:42:43,859 --> 00:42:46,200 of real appeal 1054 00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:48,300 to the third world 1055 00:42:48,300 --> 00:42:49,920 well we don't call it the third world 1056 00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:52,500 anymore we call it the global South 1057 00:42:52,500 --> 00:42:54,720 thank you a term I rather abhorse since 1058 00:42:54,720 --> 00:42:56,160 hardly any people live in fact in the 1059 00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:57,660 southern hemisphere but you know what we 1060 00:42:57,660 --> 00:42:59,460 mean look there are two answers to that 1061 00:42:59,460 --> 00:43:01,200 question one there are fellow Travelers 1062 00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:02,819 today there are people who find the 1063 00:43:02,819 --> 00:43:04,140 Chinese Communist party system 1064 00:43:04,140 --> 00:43:05,760 attractive many of them are former 1065 00:43:05,760 --> 00:43:08,400 marxists or current marxists not all of 1066 00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:10,200 them are I mean read Martin jakes's book 1067 00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:11,940 when China rules the world or read 1068 00:43:11,940 --> 00:43:13,500 Daniel Bell's recent writing on the 1069 00:43:13,500 --> 00:43:15,780 Chinese system which he openly admires 1070 00:43:15,780 --> 00:43:18,060 so let's notice let's not assume that 1071 00:43:18,060 --> 00:43:20,220 there are no people attracted by the 1072 00:43:20,220 --> 00:43:22,619 Chinese uh model and that gets worse and 1073 00:43:22,619 --> 00:43:23,819 worse there were that many people 1074 00:43:23,819 --> 00:43:25,680 actually in the United States attracted 1075 00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:27,599 by Soviet communism you can see that 1076 00:43:27,599 --> 00:43:29,700 from voting it's really quite a small 1077 00:43:29,700 --> 00:43:31,140 number of people even if some of them 1078 00:43:31,140 --> 00:43:33,240 were in influential positions so I don't 1079 00:43:33,240 --> 00:43:34,800 think the Situation's that different but 1080 00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:37,079 the really critical point the second 1081 00:43:37,079 --> 00:43:39,740 point is the appeal of the Chinese model 1082 00:43:39,740 --> 00:43:43,380 in sub-Saharan Africa in Latin America 1083 00:43:43,380 --> 00:43:46,740 uh in the Middle East uh in Central Asia 1084 00:43:46,740 --> 00:43:49,380 indeed all over the so-called developing 1085 00:43:49,380 --> 00:43:50,940 or emerging world 1086 00:43:50,940 --> 00:43:54,720 if you are running a chaotic African 1087 00:43:54,720 --> 00:43:58,859 country it which is uh poor economically 1088 00:43:58,859 --> 00:44:01,079 the Chinese offer you a solution to the 1089 00:44:01,079 --> 00:44:02,700 crowd control problem which is better 1090 00:44:02,700 --> 00:44:05,880 than anything yet available uh prior to 1091 00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:08,280 this time you have surveillance 1092 00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:11,520 technology you have the AI you have the 1093 00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:15,420 cameras you can nail down your civilian 1094 00:44:15,420 --> 00:44:17,220 population and the Chinese have a second 1095 00:44:17,220 --> 00:44:18,420 thing to offer you and that is 1096 00:44:18,420 --> 00:44:20,040 infrastructure you don't have roads 1097 00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:21,720 we'll do roads you don't have telecoms 1098 00:44:21,720 --> 00:44:24,660 we have Huawei if you look at a map of 1099 00:44:24,660 --> 00:44:27,540 the world according to Huawei you can 1100 00:44:27,540 --> 00:44:30,960 see where the Chinese appeal is 1101 00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:33,180 strongest it's it's in the relatively 1102 00:44:33,180 --> 00:44:35,940 poor parts of the world that need to 1103 00:44:35,940 --> 00:44:37,980 have huawei's Hardware because it's 1104 00:44:37,980 --> 00:44:39,660 cheaper than any other hardware and they 1105 00:44:39,660 --> 00:44:41,579 need the financing that Huawei can offer 1106 00:44:41,579 --> 00:44:43,680 them the reason I started talking about 1107 00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:46,619 Cold War II was that I saw that map the 1108 00:44:46,619 --> 00:44:48,300 map of the world according to Huawei 1109 00:44:48,300 --> 00:44:51,480 back in 2017 or 18. at a time when the 1110 00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:53,880 US was deciding to shut Huawei out and 1111 00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:55,319 some other countries were following our 1112 00:44:55,319 --> 00:44:57,300 lead like Australia and I looked at the 1113 00:44:57,300 --> 00:44:58,619 map of the world and they were the 1114 00:44:58,619 --> 00:45:01,140 countries that were saying no to Huawei 1115 00:45:01,140 --> 00:45:02,940 that was the US and its close allies 1116 00:45:02,940 --> 00:45:04,680 they were the countries that were saying 1117 00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:06,180 yes to Huawei and that was what you 1118 00:45:06,180 --> 00:45:08,099 called the third world and then there 1119 00:45:08,099 --> 00:45:09,780 were the non-aligned countries were like 1120 00:45:09,780 --> 00:45:11,339 you know can we maybe have a little bit 1121 00:45:11,339 --> 00:45:13,980 of both that's a very cold war map as 1122 00:45:13,980 --> 00:45:15,839 soon as you see it you think oh man this 1123 00:45:15,839 --> 00:45:18,240 looks really familiar okay 1124 00:45:18,240 --> 00:45:20,280 what difference does it make 1125 00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:22,800 give me give me the world a decade from 1126 00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:25,319 now if I'm fast forward Cold War and 1127 00:45:25,319 --> 00:45:28,700 Cold War II ends 1128 00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:30,599 what would a Chinese 1129 00:45:30,599 --> 00:45:31,980 let me step back 1130 00:45:31,980 --> 00:45:35,960 we knew throughout Cold War One 1131 00:45:36,180 --> 00:45:39,240 what life would look like 1132 00:45:39,240 --> 00:45:41,220 if the other side won 1133 00:45:41,220 --> 00:45:42,900 because we only had to look to Eastern 1134 00:45:42,900 --> 00:45:44,700 Europe you only had to stand at the 1135 00:45:44,700 --> 00:45:47,099 Berlin Wall in West Berlin and look over 1136 00:45:47,099 --> 00:45:48,960 into East Berlin you only had to look at 1137 00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:52,640 North Korea versus South Korea 1138 00:45:52,859 --> 00:45:55,800 it's trickier to know what it would mean 1139 00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:57,900 suppose they did win what would a 1140 00:45:57,900 --> 00:46:01,020 Chinese Victory look like how would life 1141 00:46:01,020 --> 00:46:02,940 for your children well no we're talking 1142 00:46:02,940 --> 00:46:04,200 about something happening so quickly 1143 00:46:04,200 --> 00:46:05,760 that it's not just our children it's us 1144 00:46:05,760 --> 00:46:08,460 how would life be different if they won 1145 00:46:08,460 --> 00:46:10,920 what's at risk well first of all let's 1146 00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:13,800 remember that there are kind of three 1147 00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:15,900 paths to think about there's the 1148 00:46:15,900 --> 00:46:18,960 disastrous path the World War III path 1149 00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:21,540 where we go head to head over Taiwan or 1150 00:46:21,540 --> 00:46:23,520 somewhere else and things escalate and 1151 00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:25,440 before you know it those nuclear weapons 1152 00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:27,359 are flying that is not to be dismissed 1153 00:46:27,359 --> 00:46:28,740 out of hand I think one of the big 1154 00:46:28,740 --> 00:46:31,619 dangers about a U.S China war is that 1155 00:46:31,619 --> 00:46:33,540 there would be no stopping it from 1156 00:46:33,540 --> 00:46:35,460 escalating so that's a future we 1157 00:46:35,460 --> 00:46:37,140 certainly want to avoid just as we 1158 00:46:37,140 --> 00:46:39,540 wanted to avoid it in Cold War one and 1159 00:46:39,540 --> 00:46:41,819 there's a second plausible scenario in 1160 00:46:41,819 --> 00:46:43,800 which there's a showdown we fold that's 1161 00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:46,020 my American sewers that's the moment 1162 00:46:46,020 --> 00:46:48,300 when we suddenly discover oh the United 1163 00:46:48,300 --> 00:46:50,579 States is not Numero Uno anymore it 1164 00:46:50,579 --> 00:46:52,619 can't actually uphold its dominance in 1165 00:46:52,619 --> 00:46:54,839 the in the Pacific region and I think 1166 00:46:54,839 --> 00:46:57,180 that is also something that would be uh 1167 00:46:57,180 --> 00:46:59,040 undesirable by the way and after the 1168 00:46:59,040 --> 00:47:01,920 British Suez after the Suez Suez life 1169 00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:03,720 went on in Britain living standards 1170 00:47:03,720 --> 00:47:06,780 continued to rise well let's not get 1171 00:47:06,780 --> 00:47:08,280 carried away here because there were 1172 00:47:08,280 --> 00:47:11,640 significant prices to be paid for the 1173 00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:14,280 end of Empire one of the most enjoyable 1174 00:47:14,280 --> 00:47:17,040 features about being an American is that 1175 00:47:17,040 --> 00:47:19,440 you are the issuer of the world's 1176 00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:21,359 Reserve currency and the currency that's 1177 00:47:21,359 --> 00:47:23,339 favored in almost all International 1178 00:47:23,339 --> 00:47:26,040 transactions and you can sell your 1179 00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:27,540 10-year treasuries to the rest of the 1180 00:47:27,540 --> 00:47:29,040 world and the rest of the world will buy 1181 00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:31,020 them because they foolishly think it's a 1182 00:47:31,020 --> 00:47:34,079 risk-free asset so if you lose a 1183 00:47:34,079 --> 00:47:36,000 geopolitics as Britain did in the late 1184 00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:38,160 1950s it's amazing how rapidly your 1185 00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:40,200 currency can depreciate I mean it's not 1186 00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:43,560 that long ago that it was 1.7 to the 1187 00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:45,420 pound that was during the Liz truss 1188 00:47:45,420 --> 00:47:49,640 Fiasco it was 4.86 when Britain's Empire 1189 00:47:49,640 --> 00:47:53,819 was uh up and running and that's to be 1190 00:47:53,819 --> 00:47:55,619 taken very seriously the United States 1191 00:47:55,619 --> 00:47:58,020 would find it expensive to be a 1192 00:47:58,020 --> 00:48:00,900 second-tier power the RMB is not a 1193 00:48:00,900 --> 00:48:03,060 convertible currency but as I just 1194 00:48:03,060 --> 00:48:04,380 pointed out and a new piece for 1195 00:48:04,380 --> 00:48:06,300 Bloomberg opinion it is a currency that 1196 00:48:06,300 --> 00:48:08,160 is being used more and more in 1197 00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:10,980 transactions uh by China's trading 1198 00:48:10,980 --> 00:48:14,099 partners we should not underestimate how 1199 00:48:14,099 --> 00:48:15,900 quickly the structure of the 1200 00:48:15,900 --> 00:48:17,460 International Financial system would 1201 00:48:17,460 --> 00:48:21,000 change if the U.S was no longer the 1202 00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:25,020 credible number one Global superpower 1203 00:48:25,020 --> 00:48:26,460 but then there's a broader question 1204 00:48:26,460 --> 00:48:27,900 which I think is what you're really 1205 00:48:27,900 --> 00:48:29,700 getting at Peter and what's the world 1206 00:48:29,700 --> 00:48:34,140 like if China is number one uh I think 1207 00:48:34,140 --> 00:48:36,180 that's not a very agreeable world to 1208 00:48:36,180 --> 00:48:38,760 live in because China's attitude towards 1209 00:48:38,760 --> 00:48:41,460 individual rights uh human rights is on 1210 00:48:41,460 --> 00:48:44,460 display in you don't need to uh go to 1211 00:48:44,460 --> 00:48:46,200 another planet you just need to go and 1212 00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:48,900 see the way in which the uyghurs are 1213 00:48:48,900 --> 00:48:50,819 treated in xinjiang whether our labor 1214 00:48:50,819 --> 00:48:53,400 camps where perhaps a million people are 1215 00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:55,319 under detention there are re-education 1216 00:48:55,319 --> 00:48:58,020 programs there are policies with respect 1217 00:48:58,020 --> 00:48:59,520 to fertility that could easily be 1218 00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:00,720 characterized and have been 1219 00:49:00,720 --> 00:49:03,540 characterized as genocidal so let's not 1220 00:49:03,540 --> 00:49:06,540 forget that at the heart of this system 1221 00:49:06,540 --> 00:49:10,319 is the old totalitarian devil the the 1222 00:49:10,319 --> 00:49:13,859 old dark force that we once understood 1223 00:49:13,859 --> 00:49:17,040 so well uh in Cold War one when we had 1224 00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:19,319 to steer the Soviet system in the face 1225 00:49:19,319 --> 00:49:21,660 and imagine what its extension would be 1226 00:49:21,660 --> 00:49:23,579 like I'm not sure the expansion of 1227 00:49:23,579 --> 00:49:25,980 Chinese power would be significantly 1228 00:49:25,980 --> 00:49:28,200 different wherever it encountered 1229 00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:30,960 resistance if China's in a position to 1230 00:49:30,960 --> 00:49:33,060 export its model of social control and 1231 00:49:33,060 --> 00:49:36,359 state surveillance to Africa uh where 1232 00:49:36,359 --> 00:49:37,980 almost all the population growth is 1233 00:49:37,980 --> 00:49:40,020 going to be for the rest of the century 1234 00:49:40,020 --> 00:49:42,660 then a rising share of humanity finds 1235 00:49:42,660 --> 00:49:45,619 itself under the great Beijing 1236 00:49:45,619 --> 00:49:48,359 panopticon so I think we need to to 1237 00:49:48,359 --> 00:49:51,720 regard that the future that the world on 1238 00:49:51,720 --> 00:49:54,780 on the Chinese dominance uh with at 1239 00:49:54,780 --> 00:49:57,540 least some of the fradur with which we 1240 00:49:57,540 --> 00:50:00,180 used to regard a soviet-dominated world 1241 00:50:00,180 --> 00:50:02,040 but can I come to my third scenario of 1242 00:50:02,040 --> 00:50:04,380 course the third scenario which I think 1243 00:50:04,380 --> 00:50:06,839 is the plausible one is that we find 1244 00:50:06,839 --> 00:50:10,260 ourselves trying to prevent the 1245 00:50:10,260 --> 00:50:12,839 expansion of Chinese power in multiple 1246 00:50:12,839 --> 00:50:16,079 theaters containment is not the word we 1247 00:50:16,079 --> 00:50:18,119 necessarily use because that was George 1248 00:50:18,119 --> 00:50:20,040 kennen's world but we're already doing 1249 00:50:20,040 --> 00:50:22,440 it and it's funny really to be engaged 1250 00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:25,680 in a cold war without acknowledging that 1251 00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:27,000 but if you look at the Biden 1252 00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:28,380 administration's National Security 1253 00:50:28,380 --> 00:50:31,140 strategy that just came out it says 1254 00:50:31,140 --> 00:50:33,540 we're not in a new Cold War no new Cold 1255 00:50:33,540 --> 00:50:36,119 War but everything in it implies that 1256 00:50:36,119 --> 00:50:38,040 we're in a Cold War what is the goal 1257 00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:40,380 that they're currently pursuing to limit 1258 00:50:40,380 --> 00:50:42,540 China's ability to catch up with us 1259 00:50:42,540 --> 00:50:45,119 technologically by cutting it off that's 1260 00:50:45,119 --> 00:50:46,680 what the Commerce Department did last 1261 00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:48,420 year from the most sophisticated 1262 00:50:48,420 --> 00:50:50,460 semiconductors and the people and 1263 00:50:50,460 --> 00:50:53,280 Technology you need to make them so 1264 00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:55,099 we've kind of put the sanctions on China 1265 00:50:55,099 --> 00:50:58,020 xante rather than waiting for a showdown 1266 00:50:58,020 --> 00:51:00,660 that's a really important part of Cold 1267 00:51:00,660 --> 00:51:03,720 War the effort of the leading power to 1268 00:51:03,720 --> 00:51:06,660 preserve its technological leadership by 1269 00:51:06,660 --> 00:51:09,119 preventing the rising power from 1270 00:51:09,119 --> 00:51:11,220 catching up I think that's the plausible 1271 00:51:11,220 --> 00:51:14,400 future that we have to fight in multiple 1272 00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:17,400 uh geographies but above all we have to 1273 00:51:17,400 --> 00:51:18,839 fight to maintain our technological 1274 00:51:18,839 --> 00:51:20,520 leadership that's the future I think 1275 00:51:20,520 --> 00:51:24,359 we're in okay last 1276 00:51:26,940 --> 00:51:29,339 sorry before we leave that why don't 1277 00:51:29,339 --> 00:51:31,800 they call it a Cold War I mean I just I 1278 00:51:31,800 --> 00:51:33,300 know why I think of John Kennedy's 1279 00:51:33,300 --> 00:51:36,059 inaugural address we will bear any book 1280 00:51:36,059 --> 00:51:38,640 burden oppose any Foe and his ratings 1281 00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:42,059 he it was in some ways it was it was 1282 00:51:42,059 --> 00:51:43,619 beyond bracing was thrilling to the 1283 00:51:43,619 --> 00:51:45,240 country to be to feel that it was 1284 00:51:45,240 --> 00:51:48,420 defending itself and Liberty so why not 1285 00:51:48,420 --> 00:51:50,819 why wouldn't Biden go before Congress 1286 00:51:50,819 --> 00:51:53,400 and say my fellow this is this is the 1287 00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:55,500 moment well we will at some point get a 1288 00:51:55,500 --> 00:51:57,540 president who does that but we currently 1289 00:51:57,540 --> 00:51:59,760 remember in that early phase of the Cold 1290 00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:02,880 War when we don't want to face it and we 1291 00:52:02,880 --> 00:52:04,559 think that if we call it by its real 1292 00:52:04,559 --> 00:52:06,300 name we'll somehow make matters worse 1293 00:52:06,300 --> 00:52:09,059 because we'll upset Xi Jinping and I 1294 00:52:09,059 --> 00:52:10,260 think that sense that it would be rather 1295 00:52:10,260 --> 00:52:12,720 undiplomatic to call it a cold war in 1296 00:52:12,720 --> 00:52:14,339 public it's very widespread you talk to 1297 00:52:14,339 --> 00:52:16,260 people in the state department or in the 1298 00:52:16,260 --> 00:52:17,700 European particularly in the European 1299 00:52:17,700 --> 00:52:18,780 foreign Ministries and that's what 1300 00:52:18,780 --> 00:52:20,160 you'll hear oh don't call it that Neil 1301 00:52:20,160 --> 00:52:22,440 you'll really upset them and that's 1302 00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:24,480 classic early Cold War remember how we 1303 00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:26,460 used to worry about Uncle Joe in the 1304 00:52:26,460 --> 00:52:29,099 period between 1945 and 1950 that that 1305 00:52:29,099 --> 00:52:31,079 sense that you got from the New York 1306 00:52:31,079 --> 00:52:33,440 Times reaction to Fulton The Fulton 1307 00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:36,480 we're in that state of mind so the next 1308 00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:38,339 president I hope will be able to speak 1309 00:52:38,339 --> 00:52:40,380 more candidly about where we are but 1310 00:52:40,380 --> 00:52:41,940 there's another reason and the other 1311 00:52:41,940 --> 00:52:43,800 reason is that this Administration is 1312 00:52:43,800 --> 00:52:45,420 much more interested in going after the 1313 00:52:45,420 --> 00:52:49,140 Enemy Within the Maga Republicans whom 1314 00:52:49,140 --> 00:52:51,480 they like to portray as the existential 1315 00:52:51,480 --> 00:52:53,280 threats of America they far rather focus 1316 00:52:53,280 --> 00:52:55,619 on that for political reasons than focus 1317 00:52:55,619 --> 00:52:57,059 on the threat posed by China I think 1318 00:52:57,059 --> 00:52:58,980 that's unfortunate because one of the 1319 00:52:58,980 --> 00:53:01,200 lessons of Cold War one is our 1320 00:53:01,200 --> 00:53:03,300 vulnerability is our capacity for 1321 00:53:03,300 --> 00:53:05,220 internal division yes things weren't 1322 00:53:05,220 --> 00:53:07,020 most wrong in the Cold War when the 1323 00:53:07,020 --> 00:53:08,819 United States was most divided over 1324 00:53:08,819 --> 00:53:11,579 Vietnam in that period from the sort of 1325 00:53:11,579 --> 00:53:13,380 late 60s the early 70s when the country 1326 00:53:13,380 --> 00:53:15,900 was really very very deeply Riven that 1327 00:53:15,900 --> 00:53:18,900 is not a problem they have in China and 1328 00:53:18,900 --> 00:53:20,579 that's I think something to say never 1329 00:53:20,579 --> 00:53:23,660 mind so last question 1330 00:53:24,839 --> 00:53:27,839 the last question give me a moment to 1331 00:53:27,839 --> 00:53:29,400 set this up and then I'll just toss it 1332 00:53:29,400 --> 00:53:31,740 to you uh but but I'll need a moment to 1333 00:53:31,740 --> 00:53:33,420 set it up here's George Kennan you 1334 00:53:33,420 --> 00:53:34,740 mentioned George Kennedy a moment ago 1335 00:53:34,740 --> 00:53:37,319 George kenned writing in 1953 we're not 1336 00:53:37,319 --> 00:53:39,119 talking about The Long Telegram in 46. 1337 00:53:39,119 --> 00:53:40,920 this is 1953 the cold war is now 1338 00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:43,319 underway Korea's already happened George 1339 00:53:43,319 --> 00:53:45,660 Cannon the thoughtful Observer will find 1340 00:53:45,660 --> 00:53:47,940 no cause for complaint in the kremlin's 1341 00:53:47,940 --> 00:53:50,520 challenge to American society he will 1342 00:53:50,520 --> 00:53:52,319 rather experience this nobody writes 1343 00:53:52,319 --> 00:53:53,880 like this anymore he will rather 1344 00:53:53,880 --> 00:53:55,500 experience a certain gratitude to 1345 00:53:55,500 --> 00:53:57,180 Providence which by providing the 1346 00:53:57,180 --> 00:53:58,800 American people with this implacable 1347 00:53:58,800 --> 00:54:01,559 challenge has made their entire security 1348 00:54:01,559 --> 00:54:04,440 as a nation dependent on their pulling 1349 00:54:04,440 --> 00:54:07,319 themselves together and accepting the 1350 00:54:07,319 --> 00:54:09,780 responsibilities of moral and political 1351 00:54:09,780 --> 00:54:12,480 leadership that history plainly intended 1352 00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:14,760 them to Bear close quote 1353 00:54:14,760 --> 00:54:17,099 all right you look back at the history 1354 00:54:17,099 --> 00:54:19,559 of Cold War one and you can see at least 1355 00:54:19,559 --> 00:54:20,640 a couple of moments when the United 1356 00:54:20,640 --> 00:54:22,920 States really did pull itself together 1357 00:54:22,920 --> 00:54:25,980 one is when Kennen is writing Truman has 1358 00:54:25,980 --> 00:54:28,920 stopped the the Communists in Korea 1359 00:54:28,920 --> 00:54:33,480 we've invented NATO anicos a moment of 1360 00:54:33,480 --> 00:54:36,420 enormous diplomatic and creativity and 1361 00:54:36,420 --> 00:54:39,119 ramping up the military as well and then 1362 00:54:39,119 --> 00:54:40,800 again we pull ourselves together during 1363 00:54:40,800 --> 00:54:43,140 the 1980s okay 1364 00:54:43,140 --> 00:54:45,240 so the thought there is if we did it 1365 00:54:45,240 --> 00:54:47,940 before we can do it again one more 1366 00:54:47,940 --> 00:54:49,619 quotation this time from investor Ray 1367 00:54:49,619 --> 00:54:52,200 dalio who has billions of dollars at 1368 00:54:52,200 --> 00:54:55,380 stake in China and one tends to listen 1369 00:54:55,380 --> 00:54:57,599 to a man who has something at stake Ray 1370 00:54:57,599 --> 00:55:00,300 dalio quote the United States is having 1371 00:55:00,300 --> 00:55:02,339 financial problems it is having internal 1372 00:55:02,339 --> 00:55:04,619 conflicts and it is facing outside 1373 00:55:04,619 --> 00:55:07,740 challenges the Chinese are earning more 1374 00:55:07,740 --> 00:55:09,839 than their spending they have domestic 1375 00:55:09,839 --> 00:55:12,720 order and they've had rapid Improvement 1376 00:55:12,720 --> 00:55:16,140 in education productivity trade I can't 1377 00:55:16,140 --> 00:55:17,760 say whether democracy is better than 1378 00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:20,480 autocracy 1379 00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:22,440 rather breathtaking admission right 1380 00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:24,359 there I can't say whether democracy is 1381 00:55:24,359 --> 00:55:26,640 better than autocracy but China is not 1382 00:55:26,640 --> 00:55:28,980 like the United States which is at risk 1383 00:55:28,980 --> 00:55:32,040 of a type of Civil War close quote 1384 00:55:32,040 --> 00:55:34,559 and the argument there is 1385 00:55:34,559 --> 00:55:35,940 maybe we used to be able to pull 1386 00:55:35,940 --> 00:55:37,440 ourselves together but that was a 1387 00:55:37,440 --> 00:55:40,920 different America well before we bow 1388 00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:43,140 down before our new Chinese overlords 1389 00:55:43,140 --> 00:55:45,599 let me offer two thoughts about those 1390 00:55:45,599 --> 00:55:47,579 two very different uh quotations from 1391 00:55:47,579 --> 00:55:49,940 two very different men first of all 1392 00:55:49,940 --> 00:55:53,880 kennel was right the Cold War at least 1393 00:55:53,880 --> 00:55:57,599 for a time uh United Americans it was 1394 00:55:57,599 --> 00:55:58,859 something about which there was 1395 00:55:58,859 --> 00:56:01,319 remarkably little dissent in the 1950s 1396 00:56:01,319 --> 00:56:04,020 and right through until the late 1960s 1397 00:56:04,020 --> 00:56:06,720 there was a period of deep division as I 1398 00:56:06,720 --> 00:56:09,000 mentioned already and then to an amazing 1399 00:56:09,000 --> 00:56:11,460 extent Americans came back together and 1400 00:56:11,460 --> 00:56:13,440 even before the 1980s one reason Ronald 1401 00:56:13,440 --> 00:56:15,180 Reagan became president was that his 1402 00:56:15,180 --> 00:56:17,520 critique of Dayton really struck home 1403 00:56:17,520 --> 00:56:20,220 I'm very very struck by as I read my way 1404 00:56:20,220 --> 00:56:21,960 through the materials for Kissinger 1405 00:56:21,960 --> 00:56:26,579 Volume 2 how quickly by 1976 Americans 1406 00:56:26,579 --> 00:56:28,680 were convinced that they taunt had 1407 00:56:28,680 --> 00:56:31,319 turned out to be a mistake over Angola 1408 00:56:31,319 --> 00:56:33,180 For Heaven's Sake it was Soviet and 1409 00:56:33,180 --> 00:56:35,760 Cuban intervention in Angola that caused 1410 00:56:35,760 --> 00:56:37,940 Kissinger's ratings to plummet and 1411 00:56:37,940 --> 00:56:40,319 reaganitor emerge as a national figure a 1412 00:56:40,319 --> 00:56:41,880 credible potential candidate for the 1413 00:56:41,880 --> 00:56:44,339 Republican party so one reason that I'm 1414 00:56:44,339 --> 00:56:45,960 talking about Cold War II is that I do 1415 00:56:45,960 --> 00:56:48,780 think this country needs an external foe 1416 00:56:48,780 --> 00:56:51,180 it really helps if we don't have one we 1417 00:56:51,180 --> 00:56:52,920 just fall apart we just tear one of the 1418 00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:55,140 pieces and it's very interesting to see 1419 00:56:55,140 --> 00:56:57,540 how in periods in the past hundred years 1420 00:56:57,540 --> 00:56:59,579 what Americans haven't had a clear 1421 00:56:59,579 --> 00:57:01,559 geopolitical project haven't had a clear 1422 00:57:01,559 --> 00:57:03,720 geopolitical rival tends to be the 1423 00:57:03,720 --> 00:57:05,520 period when the division gets nastiest 1424 00:57:05,520 --> 00:57:08,339 it was when we stopped believing in the 1425 00:57:08,339 --> 00:57:10,200 Soviet threat and decided in the late 1426 00:57:10,200 --> 00:57:12,000 60s that we were really the problem we 1427 00:57:12,000 --> 00:57:13,800 were really the problem in Vietnam that 1428 00:57:13,800 --> 00:57:16,260 things became most toxic so maybe this 1429 00:57:16,260 --> 00:57:18,000 is just the immigrant's eye view but I 1430 00:57:18,000 --> 00:57:20,460 do think my fellow Americans you do play 1431 00:57:20,460 --> 00:57:23,720 better when there is a clear 1432 00:57:23,720 --> 00:57:26,160 external threat so let's not 1433 00:57:26,160 --> 00:57:27,780 underestimate how much that probably 1434 00:57:27,780 --> 00:57:31,500 helps notice bipartisanship is back on 1435 00:57:31,500 --> 00:57:33,240 one issue and one issue alone and that's 1436 00:57:33,240 --> 00:57:35,520 China it's a quite extraordinary thing 1437 00:57:35,520 --> 00:57:37,880 that when you meet with members of Mike 1438 00:57:37,880 --> 00:57:40,380 new house committee on the Chinese 1439 00:57:40,380 --> 00:57:42,599 Communist Party the Democrats and 1440 00:57:42,599 --> 00:57:45,059 Republicans agree on a surprisingly 1441 00:57:45,059 --> 00:57:46,500 large number of things not on everything 1442 00:57:46,500 --> 00:57:50,520 but there's a real bipartisan sense that 1443 00:57:50,520 --> 00:57:52,800 China is the major strategic challenge 1444 00:57:52,800 --> 00:57:55,500 so if it's a polarization you worry 1445 00:57:55,500 --> 00:57:57,599 about I have good news for you because 1446 00:57:57,599 --> 00:58:00,660 if you put against China in the title of 1447 00:58:00,660 --> 00:58:02,339 your bill it'll get through the Senate 1448 00:58:02,339 --> 00:58:03,900 and the house that's why we have to do 1449 00:58:03,900 --> 00:58:05,880 immigration reform as long as it's 1450 00:58:05,880 --> 00:58:07,980 against China it can be done so that's 1451 00:58:07,980 --> 00:58:10,020 my first response we can definitely 1452 00:58:10,020 --> 00:58:12,839 revive the Canon spirit 1453 00:58:12,839 --> 00:58:14,460 to Ray dalio 1454 00:58:14,460 --> 00:58:16,440 I have this to say 1455 00:58:16,440 --> 00:58:20,940 China will lose Cold War II if we can 1456 00:58:20,940 --> 00:58:22,500 play a long enough game 1457 00:58:22,500 --> 00:58:25,559 because its demographics are a disaster 1458 00:58:25,559 --> 00:58:27,599 you know it's quite possible Peter that 1459 00:58:27,599 --> 00:58:30,180 the population of China could half 1460 00:58:30,180 --> 00:58:31,740 between now and the end of the century 1461 00:58:31,740 --> 00:58:34,260 it'll certainly Fall by at least a third 1462 00:58:34,260 --> 00:58:36,119 the fertility rate is well below 1463 00:58:36,119 --> 00:58:39,059 replacement and that's a sign not of a 1464 00:58:39,059 --> 00:58:41,339 healthy Society I think but one that has 1465 00:58:41,339 --> 00:58:45,780 a very foreshortened future secondly the 1466 00:58:45,780 --> 00:58:49,500 economy is in deep trouble around 29 of 1467 00:58:49,500 --> 00:58:51,420 Chinese economic activity is real estate 1468 00:58:51,420 --> 00:58:53,579 the whole thing sucks because Tara 1469 00:58:53,579 --> 00:58:55,500 blocks for nobody are not a good 1470 00:58:55,500 --> 00:58:58,260 business proposition thirdly I think 1471 00:58:58,260 --> 00:59:00,059 there's a major problem of legitimacy 1472 00:59:00,059 --> 00:59:02,579 which Xi Jinping understands and that is 1473 00:59:02,579 --> 00:59:06,000 precisely why there are striking hawkish 1474 00:59:06,000 --> 00:59:07,799 postures in Taiwan it's one of the few 1475 00:59:07,799 --> 00:59:08,880 things they know they can really 1476 00:59:08,880 --> 00:59:11,280 mobilize their population behind if 1477 00:59:11,280 --> 00:59:12,900 growth is going down to the low single 1478 00:59:12,900 --> 00:59:15,780 digits the key to Cold War as you said 1479 00:59:15,780 --> 00:59:18,780 earlier is the US is a free Society 1480 00:59:18,780 --> 00:59:20,819 ought to out innovate the totalitarian 1481 00:59:20,819 --> 00:59:24,240 regime so ultimately the US is the 1482 00:59:24,240 --> 00:59:26,880 favorite to win a technological race 1483 00:59:26,880 --> 00:59:30,720 if we can avoid a reckless Showdown when 1484 00:59:30,720 --> 00:59:33,059 we're not ready for prime time in the 1485 00:59:33,059 --> 00:59:35,280 next few years and this seems to be an 1486 00:59:35,280 --> 00:59:37,920 argument actually four days old Ronald 1487 00:59:37,920 --> 00:59:39,540 Reagan made date on into a dirty word 1488 00:59:39,540 --> 00:59:41,099 but you know what they don't serve the 1489 00:59:41,099 --> 00:59:43,140 United States pretty well after the day 1490 00:59:43,140 --> 00:59:45,000 Battle of Vietnam you couldn't have been 1491 00:59:45,000 --> 00:59:48,480 Ronald Reagan in 1970. you could only be 1492 00:59:48,480 --> 00:59:50,280 Ronald Reagan in 1980 and what had 1493 00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:52,380 happened in that decade actually the U.S 1494 00:59:52,380 --> 00:59:54,299 had done a lot to recover from the 1495 00:59:54,299 --> 00:59:56,520 disaster of Vietnam I think we need to 1496 00:59:56,520 --> 00:59:59,099 take our time right now but Henry 1497 00:59:59,099 --> 01:00:01,079 Kissinger bought a decade and it was a 1498 01:00:01,079 --> 01:00:02,940 decade we needed absolutely is that 1499 01:00:02,940 --> 01:00:04,559 correct absolutely that and that will be 1500 01:00:04,559 --> 01:00:06,540 the key argument that Volume 2 of my 1501 01:00:06,540 --> 01:00:09,299 biography makes that in that time not 1502 01:00:09,299 --> 01:00:11,400 only does the US cannot get over the 1503 01:00:11,400 --> 01:00:14,460 terrible trauma of Vietnam it's also the 1504 01:00:14,460 --> 01:00:17,339 decade where Steve Jobs and Bill Gates 1505 01:00:17,339 --> 01:00:20,220 invent little companies by the names of 1506 01:00:20,220 --> 01:00:22,500 apple and Microsoft it's when Silicon 1507 01:00:22,500 --> 01:00:25,079 Valley really begins and and the US 1508 01:00:25,079 --> 01:00:28,200 starts in the 1970s to get its mojo back 1509 01:00:28,200 --> 01:00:30,240 even if it's not until the 80s that it 1510 01:00:30,240 --> 01:00:32,640 politically manifests itself and that's 1511 01:00:32,640 --> 01:00:34,799 because Dayton bought time and I 1512 01:00:34,799 --> 01:00:36,839 strongly believe we should be buying 1513 01:00:36,839 --> 01:00:39,240 time right now and not racing for a 1514 01:00:39,240 --> 01:00:42,240 showdown over an island that is a long 1515 01:00:42,240 --> 01:00:44,579 way away from the United States and very 1516 01:00:44,579 --> 01:00:46,020 close to China 1517 01:00:46,020 --> 01:00:48,599 but that which we must somehow avoid 1518 01:00:48,599 --> 01:00:50,520 surrendering at the same time I think 1519 01:00:50,520 --> 01:00:52,260 the lesson from the British experience 1520 01:00:52,260 --> 01:00:55,859 is do try and deter your great power 1521 01:00:55,859 --> 01:00:58,980 rival the Britain tried and failed twice 1522 01:00:58,980 --> 01:01:00,960 to deter Germany from starting a World 1523 01:01:00,960 --> 01:01:03,780 War and I think the United States has to 1524 01:01:03,780 --> 01:01:07,319 learn that lesson it's very tempting not 1525 01:01:07,319 --> 01:01:09,359 to pay The Upfront costs of deterrence 1526 01:01:09,359 --> 01:01:12,359 defense budget is projected to shrink 1527 01:01:12,359 --> 01:01:14,280 below the interest payments in the 1528 01:01:14,280 --> 01:01:16,079 federal debt at some point later this 1529 01:01:16,079 --> 01:01:18,119 decade on current fiscal projections 1530 01:01:18,119 --> 01:01:20,579 when a superpower is spending more on 1531 01:01:20,579 --> 01:01:22,799 debt service than defense I think it's 1532 01:01:22,799 --> 01:01:25,500 days are numbered you have to invest in 1533 01:01:25,500 --> 01:01:28,020 deterrence it's cheaper than fighting a 1534 01:01:28,020 --> 01:01:29,819 World War that's the lesson of British 1535 01:01:29,819 --> 01:01:32,640 history Americans need to learn it Neil 1536 01:01:32,640 --> 01:01:34,740 Ferguson thank you very much thank you 1537 01:01:34,740 --> 01:01:35,819 Peter 1538 01:01:35,819 --> 01:01:37,500 for uncommon knowledge the Hoover 1539 01:01:37,500 --> 01:01:39,599 institution and Fox Nation I'm Peter 1540 01:01:39,599 --> 01:01:40,260 Robinson 1541 01:01:40,260 --> 01:01:54,129 [Music]